Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise to 86.4% for December Ahead of Dec 10 and Jan 28, 2026 FOMC Meetings

COINOTAG News reports, citing CME’s FedWatch tool, that the December 25 basis point cut odds are 86.4%, leaving a 13.6% probability of no change. The surprising drop in U.S. initial jobless claims on November 26 has kept markets pricing in easing. The Fed rate cut probability embedded in futures implies a cautious tilt for the policy path, with attention on the December 10 FOMC decision and the longer horizon into January 2026.

Projected timelines show a roughly 10% chance the Fed holds rates through January 2026; a 67% likelihood of a total 25bp cut and a 23% chance of a 50bp easing. The next two FOMC meetings are December 10 and January 28, 2026. In crypto markets, these shifts may influence liquidity dynamics and risk sentiment, shaping how traders calibrate exposure amid evolving macro data and central bank commentary.