Fed Rate-Cut Outlook Overpriced: Generali’s Paolo Zanghieri Sees Only 50bps by Summer

COINOTAG News, November 24 — In a note from Generali Investments, senior economist Paolo Zanghieri and his team contend that market pricing for Fed rate cuts already discounts a larger easing cycle than the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver, according to FXStreet.

They assign roughly a 50% probability of a cut at the next meeting; given limited incoming data, they expect the Fed to hold into January while signaling an easing bias.

On the outlook, the team warns that market bets on nearly four rate cuts next year seem overly optimistic. Generali’s baseline calls for about 50 basis points of easing by the summer.

For crypto traders, the policy path matters: shifts in monetary policy expectations can affect liquidity, risk premia, and rate-sensitive assets across crypto markets.