Fed Rate Outlook 2026: CME FedWatch Signals 75.6% Chance of No Change and 41.4% Cumulative 25bp Cut Ahead of Jan 28 and Mar 18, 2026 FOMC Meetings

COINOTAG News reports, citing CME FedWatch data released December 14, that the probability of a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points in January next year stands at 24.4%, while the odds of keeping policy unchanged sit at 75.6%.

The market-implied path to March next year shows a 50.5% probability that rates remain unchanged, with a cumulative probability of a 25bp cut at 41.4% and a 50bp cut at 8.1%.

The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026 and March 18, 2026, underscoring a measured monetary policy trajectory that will hinge on incoming inflation and growth data.