Fed Rate Path 2025–2026: Liquidity Rebound Boosts Digital Assets, Gold, and Large-Cap Stocks

Delphi Digital highlighted a clearly defined Fed rate path for 2025–2026, noting a 25bp cut in December 2025 that would bring the federal funds rate toward 3.5%–3.75%. The forward curve also implies further cuts into 2026, barring surprises.

Beyond policy, QT ended on December 1, and the gradual reduction of the Treasury General Account (TGA) is underway. The overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility is fully utilized, supporting a modest but positive liquidity backdrop for markets, with SOFR and FFR anchored in the low- to high-3% range.

In 2026, the regime could shift from headwinds toward gentle tailwinds, favoring long-duration assets, large-cap equities, gold, and digital assets supported by structural demand.