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Amid a year of political headwinds around macro policy, the Federal Reserve has faced sustained scrutiny from top policymakers. Despite public critiques and calls to lower interest rates to ease debt costs, the central bank has preserved monetary steadiness, with crypto markets and broader assets trading in a measured range through 2025.
New research by Francesco Bianchi shows that presidential commentary during Trump’s first term produced a statistically meaningful shift in market-implied Fed policy paths, lowering expectations for the federal funds rate. The 2025 data echo this dynamic, with markets pricing potential rate reductions if rhetoric remains credible, while the Fed maintains its independence.
Over the longer horizon, the impact is unlikely to derail inflation or expectations. The notion of bond vigilantes has not materialized into sustained inflation pressure, and crypto risk managers should focus on liquidity and hedging against policy surprises. The takeaway for traders is to monitor Fed policy signals and maintain resilient hedges amid evolving macro conditions.
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