Federal Reserve Dot Plot Shift: Most Officials Now Forecast 75bp of 2025 Cuts — What This Means for the US Dollar (USD)

The Federal Reserve dot plot displays divergent expectations among 19 officials for rate cuts in 2025. One official sees no cuts (down from seven in June); six expect a cumulative 25 basis points reduction (one cut, up from two); two favor a cumulative 50 basis points cut (two cuts, down from eight); nine anticipate a cumulative 75 basis points easing (three cuts, up from two); and one projects a larger 150 basis points adjustment. These tallies reflect notable shifts in individual projections since June.

The dispersion signals heterogeneity in officials’ views on the future monetary path rather than a unanimous outlook. Market participants should factor this range into yield-curve and risk-asset pricing models, as Federal Reserve guidance continues to leave the timing and magnitude of 2025 rate adjustments uncertain.