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The Federal Reserve dot plot displays divergent expectations among 19 officials for rate cuts in 2025. One official sees no cuts (down from seven in June); six expect a cumulative 25 basis points reduction (one cut, up from two); two favor a cumulative 50 basis points cut (two cuts, down from eight); nine anticipate a cumulative 75 basis points easing (three cuts, up from two); and one projects a larger 150 basis points adjustment. These tallies reflect notable shifts in individual projections since June.
The dispersion signals heterogeneity in officials’ views on the future monetary path rather than a unanimous outlook. Market participants should factor this range into yield-curve and risk-asset pricing models, as Federal Reserve guidance continues to leave the timing and magnitude of 2025 rate adjustments uncertain.
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