FedWatch Signals 19.9% Chance of January 25bp Rate Cut; Markets Brace for Jan 28 and Mar 18, 2026 FOMC Meetings

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut in January has fallen to 19.9%, while the odds of keeping policy unchanged sit at 80.1%. This marks a notable shift from last week, when traders priced in a roughly 31% chance of a January cut, underscoring a cautious stance ahead of policy signals.

Markets now reflect a higher probability that rates stay unchanged through March, at 44.7%, with a 46.5% chance of a cumulative 25bps cut and 8.8% for a 50bps adjustment.

With the next FOMC meetings slated for January 28, 2026 and March 18, 2026, the policy path remains data-dependent, influencing crypto markets and broader risk assets.