Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Haigh argues that the Federal Reserve may have reached the endpoint for insurance-rate cuts, placing the next test squarely on labor market data to justify further monetary policy accommodation.

Recent commentary highlights the dot plot showing hawkish dissents alongside dovish dissents, with renewed language on the degree and timing of future moves likely aimed at appeasing hawks, while keeping the door open to potential easing.

Therefore, while a path to rate cuts persists, the case requires a meaningful labor market weakness to reach a higher threshold; until such data materializes, the Fed stance remains cautiously calibrated.