In its latest assessment, Grayscale cautions that quantum computing presents a long-term security challenge for crypto assets, but is unlikely to derail the cryptocurrency market in 2026. The firm calls the near-term threat a ‘false alarm’ for the year ahead and stresses that valuation trajectories are driven more by macro liquidity and on-chain activity than by cryptographic breakthroughs.

Grayscale’s 2026 Digital Asset Outlook notes that while the risk of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography by a quantum computer could emerge as early as before 2030, the industry is progressing with post-quantum cryptography standards and contingency planning. The analysis expects continued research, diversification of security layers, and no immediate impact on valuation in the coming 12 months.

Investors should monitor developments without overreacting to theoretical breakthroughs; the report advocates steady risk management and aligned governance among issuers and custodians as security upgrades advance. In practice, near-term price drivers remain rooted in macro factors, while cryptographic resilience efforts aim to preserve trust over the longer horizon.