IMF Raises 2025 Global Growth Forecast to 3.2% but Warns Trump Trade War Could Hit USD and Global Output

The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook, upgraded its 2025 projection for global real GDP to 3.2% from the July estimate of 3.0%, while keeping the 2026 forecast at 3.1%. The institution cautioned, however, that an escalated trade war could materially reduce global output, highlighting persistent downside risks to the baseline projection.

The report attributes the upward revision to milder-than-expected tariffs and supportive macro conditions in major economies; for the United States the IMF now projects US GDP growth of 2.0% in 2025 (up from 1.9%) and 2.1% in 2026. Officials cited a combination of a temporary fiscal impulse, looser financial conditions and elevated business investment—notably in artificial intelligence—as contributors to the revised outlook.