JPMorgan Forecasts US Stocks Rally May Stall as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Fully Priced In and Year-End Profit-Taking Looms

JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka say profit-taking could cap the recent equity rally if a Fed rate cut materializes. In their note, investors may prefer locking in gains before year-end rather than increasing directional exposure, with rate-cut expectations already priced in and U.S. equities trading near multi-month highs.

The team maintains a bullish medium-term outlook, arguing that a dovish Fed stance should support risk assets. They cite supportive dynamics—low oil, moderating wage growth, and easing tariff pressures—that could allow monetary easing without rekindling inflation, a backdrop that also informs crypto markets.

Looking ahead to 2026, factors such as reduced trade uncertainty, a brighter Asian economic outlook, expanded Eurozone fiscal spending, and faster AI adoption may help maintain liquidity and demand across markets, including cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.