JPMorgan’s Structured Note Linked to Bitcoin Spot ETF IBIT Bets on a 2026 Dip and 2028 Bull Run

JPMorgan has submitted a structured note to regulators linked to the BNY Mellon Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT). The design anchors on a four-year Bitcoin halving narrative, forecasting a near-term dip in 2026 followed by a renewed upcycle in 2028, consistent with historical cycles.

Under the mechanism, if IBIT reaches the target price by end-2026, the note is auto-redeemed with a guaranteed 16% return. If not, the maturity extends to 2028. Should IBIT surpass the target, investors could realize at least 1.5x the initial investment with no upper cap.

An embedded downside protection mechanism provides principal recovery if IBIT in 2028 falls by no more than 30%; losses scale proportionally beyond that threshold. In an extreme downturn, investors could incur losses exceeding 40% or wipe out the principal.