Kevin Hassett Tops Trump 2025 Fed Chair Prediction Market as Odds Surge on Rate-Cut Bets

According to PolyBeats monitoring on November 28, traders in the Fed Chair prediction market are pricing former White House economist Kevin Hassett as the leading nominee to head the Federal Reserve should the Trump administration nominate a chair in 2025. Hassett’s probability jumped from 14.2% to 35%, a substantial move that sharpens the market’s assessment of monetary policy risk and the trajectory of benchmark rates.

Market chatter frames Hassett as the most consistent dovish voice within the President’s economic team, aligning with expectations of significant rate cuts and slower policy normalization. Sources indicate the field has narrowed to a final five, with a year‑end announcement reportedly possible, a development that could further tilt market pricing for the chair candidate.

In the long‑horizon forecast, the market for Who will Trump nominate as the Fed Chair? (Deadline: December 31, 2026) shows Hassett leading with about 56% probability, while current Fed Governor Christopher Waller trails at roughly 24% as a potential backup with a hawkish posture. The probability of no new chair emerging remains near zero.