COINOTAG News reported on January 13 that the Canadian investment research firm BCA Research has outlined four potential black swan scenarios within their recent client report. The firm’s strategist cautioned that while these events are speculative, their macroeconomic and financial ramifications could be substantial. Notably, BCA has consistently projected an economic recession, reinforcing its bearish stance.
The first scenario includes a possible nuclear agreement between Trump and Iran, which could result in decreased oil prices and a strengthened US dollar, though a US-Iran military conflict remains a concern at a 75% probability. Secondly, there’s speculation regarding Trump’s potential abandonment of NATO, which might erode trust among member nations and negatively impact Eastern European currencies, leading to increased interest rates.
Additionally, the report highlights the risk of the US using military force against Mexico to address drug trafficking, which could trigger significant economic fallout and heightened inflation. Lastly, BCA warns of a potential global response involving foreign exchange interventions that might trigger a sharp devaluation of the US dollar, as geopolitical tensions rise amid tariff discussions.