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Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that, during oral arguments, several U.S. Supreme Court justices questioned the IEPA basis for tariffs, signaling a higher chance the measures could be deemed unconstitutional. The odds of upholding the tariffs have shifted downward by about 10 percentage points, with a ruling anticipated between December 2025 and January 2026. For crypto markets, this policy uncertainty can influence risk sentiment and liquidity in token markets.
If the Court disagrees, refunds to tariff payers could stretch for months, with estimates of $115 billion to $145 billion needing reimbursement. The government is expected to seek alternative legal grounds to reimpose duties, keeping the overall trade impact modest. Reductions may target smaller partners rather than broad changes for the EU. In the near term, handling refunds and any tariff gaps could spark short‑term volatility, with crypto assets often reacting to policy surprises.
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