UBS Analysis: US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Could Trigger $140B Refunds, Lower Tariffs, and Boost Markets

UBS research indicates that a U.S. Supreme Court ruling against the Trump tariff framework could force refunds of about $140 billion to importers, roughly 7.9% of the FY 2025 federal budget deficit. If the government loses, this windfall might push a structurally lower tariff regime, which, absent retaliation, could benefit the U.S. economy and stock market.

UBS cautions that authorities may deploy Section 201 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to rebuild barriers, a path that could take quarters and limit policy flexibility. While tariff refunds benefit importers, the broader market impact remains modest if tariff costs have not substantially pressured S&P 500 earnings or consumer prices.