US LEI-to-CEI Ratio Falls to 0.85, Signaling Recession Risk — Lowest Level Since 2008

COINOTAG News reported that KobeissiLetter data shows the ratio of Leading Economic Indicators to Coincident Economic Indicators has fallen to 0.85, the lowest reading since 2008, marking a fourth consecutive year of decline. The LEI aggregates forward-looking signals—from consumer expectations to manufacturing orders—while the CEI tracks current conditions, including payroll data.

These macro signals frequently illuminate recession risk, influencing risk assets such as the crypto market and Bitcoin. As liquidity tightens and policy expectations shift, institutional traders may rebalance toward hedges, potentially widening volatility in digital assets even as longer-term fundamentals remain intact.

Investors should monitor LEI/CEI dynamics, central-bank commentary, and macro liquidity to gauge potential crypto market responses and adjust allocations accordingly.