Yen Rises as BOJ Rate-Hike Odds Jump; Japanese Government Bond Yields Hit Fresh Highs Ahead of December Meeting

In the current macro backdrop, Japanese government bond yields climbed anew, reinforcing traders’ expectations of a BOJ rate hike. The two-year yield touched 1%, a fresh peak since 2008, with the five-year and ten-year at about 1.35% and 1.845%. The yen firmed briefly to around 155.5 per USD.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda signaled that policy shifts would be weighed carefully, while markets price a ~76% probability of a rate hike at the December 19 meeting, rising above 90% for January. The Ministry of Finance plans to raise short‑term bond issuance to support Prime Minister Kishida’s stimulus.

For crypto markets, these macro dynamics influence liquidity and risk appetite. A steeper yield curve and a firmer yen tend to temper risk-taking in high‑beta assets, while a softer USD could support cross‑border capital flows into digital assets. Monitor policy signals around December and January for spillovers into crypto liquidity.