Canary Seeks TRUMP ETF, Analyst Says Absence of Six-Month Futures Could Hamper SEC Approval

• Canary filed for a Canary Trump Coin ETF to hold Official Trump (TRUMP) directly.

• Analysts note ETFs typically need a futures product trading for six months before approval; Canary may use a 1940 Act route.

• TRUMP is ranked 55th by market cap and has fallen 69% from its January all-time high, per TradingView and CoinMarketCap data.

Canary Trump Coin ETF proposed to hold Official Trump (TRUMP); SEC review faces futures and 1940 Act questions — read the key details and next steps.

Analyst Eric Balchunas says exchange-traded funds must have a futures product live for at least six months, which Canary doesn’t have for its TRUMP fund.

President Donald Trump’s memecoin could be the basis for a US exchange-traded fund after Canary Capital became the first to file for a fund that would buy and hold the token. The filing names the product the Canary Trump Coin ETF and states it would directly hold Official Trump (TRUMP).

Official Trump ($TRUMP) is trading at $8.40 at the time of publication. CoinMarketCap

What is the Canary Trump Coin ETF?

Canary Trump Coin ETF is a proposed exchange-traded fund filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that would directly hold Official Trump (TRUMP) tokens to provide investors with token exposure via an ETF wrapper. The filing signals a novel approach to token-backed ETPs and raises regulatory questions about approval pathways.

How will the SEC likely review the Trump ETF filing?

The SEC review will assess custody, market surveillance, valuation and whether a futures market prerequisite is met. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has highlighted that most crypto ETF approvals leaned on a futures product listed and trading for at least six months, a condition currently unmet for TRUMP as observed on industry trackers such as TradingView.

Canary’s filing notes it may proceed under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (a “40 Act” fund), a different regulatory path used by some recent products. That route alters the compliance and disclosure framework compared with S-1/Form 19b-4 filings used in earlier crypto ETF approvals.

Why do analysts question whether the ETF “gets through”?

Analysts cite the absence of an established futures market for TRUMP and the token’s volatility. Eric Balchunas publicly questioned the approval odds, noting the lack of a six-month on-exchange futures product. ETF industry participants also flagged token concentration and governance as potential obstacles.

When was the fund entity established and who else filed?

Canary Capital established the legal entity for the proposed ETF with the Delaware State Department on Aug. 14, 2025. REX Financial has also filed for an ETF tracking TRUMP under a 1940 Act structure that would purchase shares in an offshore vehicle holding the token, according to public filings and industry commentary.

What are the main risks noted in the filing?

The filing warns shareholders that the shares are speculative securities and may not be appropriate for investors unable to accept elevated risk. REX Financial CEO Greg King has publicly advised ETF issuers to be selective with tokens outside the market top 20, calling smaller caps “pretty sketchy.”

Frequently Asked Questions

Can an ETF hold a memecoin like TRUMP?

Yes. A fund can be structured to hold a memecoin, but approval hinges on custody safeguards, valuation methods, liquidity and regulatory pathway—either S-1/Form 19b-4 or a 1940 Act structure.

How long does SEC review typically take?

SEC review for exchange-traded products often takes many months and can approach a year when additional paperwork and market safeguards are required. A 1940 Act path may alter timing and approval conditions.

Key Takeaways

• Filing novelty: Canary’s ETF would directly hold Official Trump (TRUMP), an uncommon structure for meme-token exposure.
• Regulatory hurdle: Lack of a six-month futures product for TRUMP is a central question cited by industry analysts.
• Investor caution: Filings explicitly label shares speculative; issuers and advisors urge caution for tokens outside the top market caps.

Conclusion

The Canary Trump Coin ETF filing highlights a new frontier for token-backed ETFs and places regulatory focus on futures markets, custody and valuation. Watch for SEC feedback, potential 1940 Act routing and further filings from competitors; investors should evaluate risk and regulatory clarity before considering exposure to TRUMP.

Published: 2025-08-27 • Updated: 2025-08-27 • Author: COINOTAG