Cardano Whale Activity Suggests Potential Distribution Risks as $1 Recovery Remains Uncertain

• Cardano’s ADA faces mounting pressure as whale wallets controlling over a third of the supply remain underwater, signaling potential distribution risks ahead.

• Despite attempts to reclaim the $1 mark, ADA struggles with weak support and diminishing speculative interest, raising concerns about sustained recovery.

• According to Santiment data cited by COINOTAG, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA dominate the supply, making their trading decisions critical to ADA’s price trajectory.

Cardano’s ADA struggles as whale distribution intensifies and $1 resistance strengthens, with key whale wallets underwater and market momentum weakening.

Dominance of 10M–100M ADA Whale Wallets and Its Impact on Price Stability

Data from Santiment reveals that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA now control a significant 35.62% of the total supply, establishing this group as the primary force shaping Cardano’s market dynamics. This concentration means that the trading behavior of these whales can heavily influence price movements, especially during periods of market weakness.

Complementing this, mid-sized holders with 100,000 to 1 million ADA account for 16.23%, collectively controlling over half of ADA’s circulating supply. This distribution highlights a bifurcated market structure where both large and mid-sized holders play pivotal roles.

The recent trend of whales offloading ADA below their average cost basis raises alarms about potential further downside. Historical patterns show that after accumulating heavily in early 2025, these whales began trimming positions as prices approached breakeven, triggering notable price declines. The recent 270 million ADA sell-off could be an early indicator of renewed distribution pressure.

Source: Santiment

Structural Challenges in Reclaiming the $1 Psychological and Technical Milestone

Reclaiming the $1 level is more than just a psychological hurdle for ADA; it represents a critical structural reset necessary to restore market confidence. Historical data shows that when whales began accumulating in January 2025, the price eventually rallied to their average cost basis, prompting partial offloading and subsequent price declines.

Currently, ADA remains below this breakeven point, with whales still underwater and potentially poised to reduce holdings further. This dynamic creates a precarious environment where upward momentum is stifled by supply-side pressure.

Additionally, the $0.60 support level is under threat as weak buying interest fails to provide a robust floor. The interplay between whale distribution and lackluster demand could precipitate a deeper correction if no significant catalysts emerge.

Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment Highlight Lingering Weakness

From a technical perspective, ADA’s relative strength index (RSI) is approaching historically oversold levels, which in prior cycles have signaled potential rebounds. However, the current macro environment differs markedly from previous instances when Bitcoin’s strength catalyzed altcoin rallies.

ADA/BTC pair analysis shows the token retesting February support levels with muted volume and flat momentum, indicating a lack of conviction among buyers. Futures market data corroborates this, revealing diminished leverage and speculative interest, which further dampens price recovery prospects.

Source: TradingView (ADA/BTC)

Market Outlook: Navigating Whale Fatigue and Support Vulnerabilities

The convergence of whale fatigue, weak technical signals, and subdued speculative interest paints a cautious outlook for ADA in the near term. The $1 resistance level, once viewed as a catalyst for renewed bullish momentum, now appears increasingly formidable.

Should whales continue to offload positions to mitigate losses, the risk of a capitulation event grows, potentially pushing ADA below the critical $0.60 support. Investors and traders should monitor whale wallet activity closely, as shifts in their behavior often presage significant price moves.

Strategic accumulation during oversold conditions could offer opportunities, but only if accompanied by increased volume and positive on-chain metrics signaling renewed confidence.

Conclusion

Cardano’s ADA currently faces a challenging phase characterized by concentrated whale holdings underwater, weak technical momentum, and fading speculative interest. The dominance of large whale wallets in the 10M–100M ADA range underscores the importance of their trading decisions in determining ADA’s price direction. Without a decisive reclaiming of the $1 level and a resurgence in market conviction, ADA risks further downside pressure, with the $0.60 support level increasingly vulnerable. Market participants should remain vigilant, focusing on whale activity and technical signals to navigate this uncertain landscape effectively.