ETH is in a “buy the dip” zone according to Coinbase analysts: the six‑month options skew is flattening, futures show long‑bias but not froth, and valuation models (MVRV Z‑score) remain below cycle‑peak extremes, creating a favorable risk/reward for buyers near $4.5K–$5K.
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Flattening 6‑month options skew signals reduced medium‑term bearish demand
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Futures open interest is high and funding is positive, indicating a long‑biased but non‑overheated market
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Valuation (MVRV Z‑score ~2) and funding rates below past local top levels support continued upside potential
Meta description: ETH buy the dip — Coinbase finds neutral options skew and manageable futures leverage, highlighting a potential buying opportunity near $4.5K. Read quick analysis & outlook.
Why do Coinbase analysts say ETH is in a “buy the dip” zone?
Coinbase analysts argue that the recent ~10% pullback from Ethereum’s August ATH, combined with a near‑flat six‑month 25‑delta put‑call skew and supportive valuation metrics, creates a constructive entry window for buyers. The most important signals are options positioning, futures leverage, and MVRV readings, which together favor risk‑on positioning into Q4.
How do options and futures data support this view?
Options: The 1‑month 25‑delta skew showed a small put premium, reflecting short‑term hedging. The 6‑month skew is falling and closer to flat, indicating declining medium‑term demand for downside protection.
Futures: Open Interest sits near record highs (~$30B), and perpetual funding rates are positive but below extreme levels (sub‑0.04–0.06). This suggests a long‑biased leverage regime that can amplify trends without the froth seen at prior tops.
Coinbase and Glassnode data were cited for options skew and funding context. TradingView price charts show ETH consolidating between $4K and $5K. These sources are mentioned as plain text and not linked.
Source: Coinbase/Glassnode (ETH options 25‑Delta Put‑Call Skew)
What does the skew and tenor tell traders about risk?
A rising short‑term skew can indicate immediate caution from market participants. In this episode the 1‑month skew ticked up modestly, reflecting near‑term hedging. But the 6‑month skew falling points to a neutral to constructive medium‑term stance. For traders, that means short‑dated protection is prudent while medium‑term directional exposure remains viable.
What does futures positioning mean for price action?
High Open Interest (~$30B) with positive funding confirms speculative interest. However, funding remains below levels associated with previous local tops, suggesting the market is not excessively overheated. This configuration supports trend continuation but increases liquidation risk around negative catalysts.
Source: Coinbase
How do valuation models factor into the buy‑the‑dip case?
The MVRV Z‑score stands near 2, well below previous cycle peaks of 4–7. A lower MVRV implies less historical overvaluation and more room for upside if on‑chain activity and market flows normalize. Combined with the Fed’s 25bps rate cut, analysts view the macro backdrop as supportive for risk assets.
Source: Coinbase
What are the primary risks to the bullish view?
Coinbase analyst David Duong highlights a key supply risk: a large pool of unstaked ETH awaiting withdrawal could become selling pressure if it moves to exchanges. If exited ETH is restaked or absorbed by institutional treasuries, the market impact should be muted. If a meaningful share flows to exchanges, it creates a new supply pocket that could cap upside.
Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ETH a buy after the recent pullback?
Short answer: Many analysts see the current ETH range ($4.5K) as an attractive entry given neutral medium‑term options skew, manageable funding, and a MVRV Z‑score below bubble levels. Risk remains if large unstaking flows reach exchanges.
How should traders manage risk on new longs?
Use short‑dated hedges or defined‑risk structures. Monitor funding and open interest. Keep position sizes appropriate given the long‑leverage bias and potential liquidation amplification around negative catalysts.
Key Takeaways
- Options signal: 6‑month skew flattening supports a medium‑term buy‑the‑dip thesis.
- Futures context: High open interest and positive funding imply speculative long bias without extreme froth.
- Watch unstaking: Large ETH exits to exchanges could turn a buying opportunity into supply pressure.
Conclusion
In summary, Coinbase analysts find that current price action, neutral options skew and supportive valuation metrics make ETH a plausible buy‑the‑dip candidate near $4.5K–$5K. Traders should combine defined‑risk entries with monitoring of funding, open interest and unstaking flows. COINOTAG will monitor developments and update coverage as new data arrives.
