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Crypto analyst PlanB asserts that Bitcoin remains significantly undervalued, forecasting an extraordinary 860% price increase within the current market cycle.
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He highlights the early phase of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, emphasizing the impact of recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launches as pivotal to the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum.
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According to COINOTAG, PlanB stated, “Bitcoin price [is] at $104,000, which is still far away from the stock-to-flow value of $500,000 based on fundamentals,” underscoring the long-term growth potential.
Bitcoin is poised for a substantial surge, with expert PlanB predicting an 860% rise this cycle, driven by fundamental scarcity and ETF market catalysts.
Bitcoin’s Undervaluation and Stock-to-Flow Model Insights
PlanB’s analysis centers on the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, a quantitative framework that evaluates Bitcoin’s scarcity relative to its supply issuance. Despite recent price consolidation below last month’s all-time high, PlanB argues that Bitcoin’s current valuation near $104,000 is substantially below the model’s projected average of $500,000 for this cycle. This discrepancy highlights a significant undervaluation, suggesting a robust upside potential as the market matures. The S2F model’s emphasis on scarcity aligns with Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap, reinforcing its appeal as a digital store of value amid increasing institutional adoption.
Impact of U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs on Market Dynamics
The January 2024 introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs marked a critical inflection point, according to PlanB. While the initial price spike following the ETF launches was characterized as a “fake loop,” it effectively reset Bitcoin’s trajectory to mirror historical bull market entry points. This reset is interpreted as a bullish signal, reaffirming the start of a new upward cycle. The ETFs have enhanced market accessibility and legitimacy, attracting a broader investor base and fostering sustained demand. This development is pivotal in transitioning Bitcoin from speculative asset status to a mainstream financial instrument.
Price Targets and Long-Term Market Outlook
PlanB’s forecast ranges from $250,000 to $1 million for Bitcoin’s average price over the remaining three years of the current cycle, implying a potential gain of up to 860%. This wide range reflects inherent market volatility but underscores the strong long-term growth trajectory. The forecast is grounded in historical patterns and fundamental scarcity metrics rather than short-term price fluctuations. Investors are advised to consider this outlook within the context of Bitcoin’s evolving regulatory landscape and macroeconomic factors influencing digital asset adoption globally.
Volatility and Market Sentiment Considerations
Despite the optimistic long-term projections, Bitcoin’s price action remains volatile and range-bound in the short term. This volatility is typical in early bull market phases, often driven by profit-taking, regulatory news, and macroeconomic shifts. PlanB’s analysis suggests that such fluctuations should be viewed as natural corrections rather than indicators of trend reversal. Market participants are encouraged to maintain a strategic perspective, leveraging dips as potential entry points while monitoring ongoing developments in ETF adoption and institutional involvement.
Conclusion
PlanB’s expert assessment positions Bitcoin as a deeply undervalued asset with substantial upside potential driven by fundamental scarcity and enhanced market infrastructure like U.S. spot ETFs. The stock-to-flow model remains a cornerstone of this bullish outlook, projecting an average price significantly above current levels within the next three years. While short-term volatility persists, the broader market signals indicate the onset of a sustained bull cycle. Investors should remain informed and consider long-term strategic positioning to capitalize on Bitcoin’s evolving growth trajectory.
