- Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization, has gained over 40% in the last four weeks.
- According to The Market Ear, if you are a short-term trader, you might want to consider new information that suggests it could be risky to follow the current rally.
- RSI, developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum indicator that typically measures the speed and change of price movements over 14 days or 14 weeks.
According to analysts at The Market Ear, trading at these levels in Bitcoin could involve risks; Analyst comments and RSI data!
Could Traders Be Late to Bitcoin’s Rally?
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization, has gained over 40% in the last four weeks and is currently trading only about 12% away from the record level of around $69,000.
These extremely bullish market conditions can often encourage short-term traders and speculators who missed the early rally to jump in, using riskier leveraged products like futures to maximize gains and compensate for losses incurred by initially staying on the sidelines.
According to The Market Ear, if you are a short-term trader, you might want to consider new information that suggests it could be risky to follow the current rally. Analysts stated, “Bitcoin [14-day] RSI is at 88. We haven’t seen RSI so overbought, and Bitcoin trading at these absolute levels ever.” and added; “Chasing from here seems like a very late trade.”
RSI, developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum indicator that typically measures the speed and change of price movements over 14 days or 14 weeks. A reading above 70 reflects overbought conditions, indicating that the asset’s price has seen higher prices consecutively for an extended period or has rallied a bit too fast and may experience a correction soon.
The fact that RSI is this high has never happened before, along with the $60,000 Bitcoin price. The indicator peaked between 65 and 75 the last time Bitcoin traded above $60,000 in early 2021 and in November 2021.
Analysts Maintain Bullish Expectations
Bitcoin’s current value lends credibility to the overbought signal of RSI, urging speculators seeking a long-term entry from market prices to be cautious. However, RSI is not a holy grail.
Markets often sustain a strong upward trend for days and weeks, keeping RSI above 70 for an extended period. Newton’s law states, “An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced external force.”
An overbought reading is not significant for current or new long-term investors since their strategy is to buy for long-term growth. Investors typically do not concern themselves with short-term price fluctuations and focus on the big picture.
According to analysts, the big picture for Bitcoin includes the halving, which reduces supply by 50% every four years, and recent developments with Wall Street’s spot Bitcoin ETFs. The general consensus is that the cryptocurrency could attract a price of $120,000 and higher by September 2025.
