Dogecoin (DOGE) hints at a potential recovery, yet significant leverage concerns and tepid inflows cast uncertainty on its upward trajectory.
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The TD Sequential buy signal has surfaced as DOGE stabilizes near its support zone, with a notable dominance of long positions among traders.
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Nonetheless, the looming risk of liquidation, coupled with lackluster spot flows and decreasing open interest, dampens bullish prospects.
Dogecoin [DOGE] has activated a TD Sequential buy signal on the hourly chart, indicating a potential short-term price rebound. This comes as DOGE hovers around the $0.222 mark, consolidating within the established range of $0.21 to $0.26. Historically, TD Sequential setups near range bottoms have often signaled impending reversals.
However, although technical indicators suggest early signs of recovery, broader market dynamics and the presence of leverage raise substantial questions about the sustainability of any rally in the near term.
Source: X/Ali
Are leveraged longs fueling a risky setup for DOGE bulls?
Current sentiment among DOGE traders skews overwhelmingly bullish, with long positions on Binance accounting for 74.44% of total trades, setting the Long/Short Ratio at an alarming 2.91.
This surge in optimism may contribute to short-term momentum; however, it also signifies a precariously leveraged market that has the potential for abrupt unwinding.
Should price action falter, overleveraged positions stand to face cascading liquidations, negating any prospective gains. This critical juncture underscores the necessity for bullish sentiment to be fortified by robust inflows to mitigate sharp downside risks.
Source: CoinGlass
Recent spot flow analysis reveals that DOGE experienced $60.89 million in inflows against $65.69 million in outflows within the same hourly period. Despite resulting in a net outflow of approximately $4.8 million, these figures remain modest when juxtaposed with historical accumulation phases.
This discrepancy indicates that while some buying pressure is observable, it still lacks the strength needed to affirm a comprehensive bullish reversal. Therefore, absent substantial spot accumulation, the rebound signal is unlikely to escalate into a prolonged upward trend.
Are long liquidations undermining DOGE’s bounce attempt?
Amidst a market saturated with long positions, liquidations for DOGE soared to $1.99 million, contrasting sharply with shorts, which incurred losses of only $88,000. This discrepancy underscores that bulls are currently absorbing the most significant market turbulence.
If DOGE fails to breach crucial resistance around the $0.23 mark, the potential for additional long liquidations looms, exacerbating downward movement.
Source: CoinGlass
In terms of market volume, DOGE saw a 6.86% increase in total derivatives volume, reaching $3.22 billion, with options volume skyrocketing over 32%, indicating heightened speculative interest.
However, a decrease of 2.86% in open interest signals a dip in trader commitment or profit-taking. This divergence creates uncertainty; while rising volumes imply activity, falling open interest suggests waning conviction.
The mixed trends further illustrate the prevailing indecision, as the market continues to grapple with establishing a clear directional bias.
Will DOGE finally break free?
DOGE has been trading between the $0.21 and $0.26 thresholds, registering a current price of $0.2227 after a 2.36% decline over the day. The relative strength index (RSI) indicates a reading of 42.44, suggesting weak momentum without reaching oversold territory. For bullish players to gain dominance, DOGE must clinch a closing price above $0.23 while setting sights on the $0.25 resistance level.
Until such an occurrence, the market remains ensnared within a consolidation phase, where any upward movements could risk rejection. Thus, a resurgence in momentum is crucial, or bearish sentiment is likely to maintain its grip on the market range.
Source: TradingView
Can Dogecoin bulls flip this signal into sustained upside?
The recently obtained TD Sequential buy signal aligns with critical technical support, providing DOGE an opportunity for a rebound.
However, the combination of weak spot flows, escalating liquidation risks, and contradictory derivatives data emphasizes underlying vulnerabilities. The prevailing bullish sentiment may require stronger follow-through to materialize fully.
The ultimate outcome for DOGE hinges on the interplay of trading volumes and alleviated leverage pressures in the forthcoming days.
