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- In a recent interview, Seyffart mentioned that no single approval announcement for spot ETFs will be made to avoid giving an advantage to be the first among the 12 companies racing for the first spot ETF approval in the United States.
- While adding that it’s unlikely that the SEC will deny all ETF applications until January 10 and then approve them all in March 2024.
- Discussing the storage methods that Bitcoin ETF providers might use, Seyffart predicted that companies would use platforms like Coinbase and Gemini for crypto custody.
ETF research analyst James Seyffart announced his predictions about the dates by which spot Bitcoin ETFs may be approved.
ETF Analyst Reveals His Prediction for a Bitcoin ETF
ETF research analyst James Seyffart predicts that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might be ready to make a decision regarding spot Bitcoin ETF approval for various applications between November 8, 2023, and November 21, 2023, at the earliest. However, he estimates a 90% chance that the Commission will not grant approval before a series of ETF applications.
Seyffart stated in a recent interview that no single approval announcement for spot ETFs will be made to avoid giving an advantage to be the first among the 12 companies racing for the first spot ETF approval in the United States. He reiterated his previous odds of approval being at 75% by the end of the year but cautioned that there could be multiple approvals when the announcement comes.
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“We think the SEC would want to allow all of them or most of them to start on the same day. No king-making.”
The final deadline for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF is on January 10, 2024. Seyffart added that it’s unlikely that the SEC would deny ARK’s application by January 10 and then approve all other ETF applications in March 2024, making November or December 2023 a plausible timeframe for an expedited decision.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: BTC Custody
When discussing the storage methods that Bitcoin ETF providers might use, Seyffart predicted that companies would employ platforms like Coinbase and Gemini for crypto custody. He explained that moving Bitcoin supply off-chain could boost the BTC supply/demand ratio. Additionally, the Bitcoin Block Reward Halving, scheduled for the second quarter of 2023, will further decrease the BTC supply.
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As a result, the reduction in supply leaves room for a potential bullish wave in Bitcoin’s price. Moreover, other macroeconomic events such as possible interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the second quarter of 2023 could further support this trend.
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