ETH Onchain Data Suggests Potential Rally to $4,500 Amid Short-Term Bearish RSI Divergence

• Ether perpetual futures volume has overtaken Bitcoin, marking a significant shift in trading focus.

• A bearish RSI divergence suggests short-term price exhaustion and possible pullback.

• Expert analysis highlights $4,500 as a critical resistance level based on active realized price bands.

ETH onchain data forecasts a $4,500 rally with caution on short-term RSI bearish signals. Stay informed with COINOTAG’s expert crypto insights.

ETH Onchain Data Highlights $4,500 Rally Potential

Ether (ETH) has consistently traded just below the $4,000 resistance since December 2025, with traders closely watching for a breakout. The +1σ active realized price band, currently near $4,500, represents a key target for bulls. This metric tracks the average cost of ETH actively exchanged on the blockchain, serving as a vital indicator of market sentiment and potential price ceilings.

Historical data from Glassnode shows this level acted as a strong resistance during the March 2024 peak and the 2020–21 bull cycle. A sustained move above this band has previously triggered rapid price surges but also increased volatility risks.

Shift in Market Interest Evident in Futures Volume

Ether perpetual futures volume has recently surpassed Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, signaling a major shift in trader focus toward ETH. This volume dominance reflects growing confidence and interest in Ethereum’s market potential. A prominent trader known as Byzantine General noted a strong bullish sentiment, stating, “ETH refuses to print any significant correction… It’s looking like a just f***ing send it moment.”

Supporting this bullish outlook, liquidation data reveals a dense cluster of short liquidations just above $4,000. A decisive move beyond this level could trigger liquidations totaling up to $930 million, potentially propelling ETH toward the $4,500 target.

What Are the Bearish RSI Divergences Signaling for ETH?

Despite bullish momentum, bearish RSI divergences on four-hour and daily charts indicate potential short-term exhaustion. While ETH price has made new local highs, the relative strength index (RSI) has not confirmed these moves, a classic sign of weakening buying pressure.

This divergence pattern resembles previous local tops and suggests a possible pullback if ETH fails to break convincingly above $4,000 with strong volume. The daily chart shows a persistent bearish divergence since ETH surpassed $3,500, highlighting ongoing caution among traders.

If a correction occurs, immediate support is expected just below $3,700, where a narrow fair value gap (FVG) exists. A deeper pullback could test the longer-term FVG between $3,200 and $3,300, risking a bearish structural break.

How Does This Impact Ethereum Traders?

Traders should monitor volume and RSI signals closely. A clean breakout above $4,000 could trigger significant short liquidations and a rapid price surge toward $4,500. Conversely, failure to sustain momentum may result in a short-term correction to key support zones.

Key Takeaways

• ETH’s active realized price band near $4,500 is a critical resistance level. Historical data confirms its significance as a price ceiling.
• Ether perpetual futures volume surpassing Bitcoin signals shifting market dynamics. This highlights increased trader interest in ETH.
• Bearish RSI divergences warn of possible short-term correction. Traders should watch for volume confirmation above $4,000.

Conclusion

ETH onchain data points to a strong rally potential toward $4,500, driven by shifting market interest and liquidation dynamics. However, bearish RSI divergences introduce caution for a possible short-term pullback below $4,000. Traders must balance optimism with technical signals to navigate upcoming price movements effectively.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does ETH’s $4,500 target mean for investors?

The $4,500 level represents a historically significant resistance based on active realized price data. A breakout above this could trigger strong bullish momentum but also increased volatility.

Why is there concern about a short-term ETH correction?

Bearish RSI divergences on multiple timeframes suggest that buying momentum may be weakening, increasing the likelihood of a short-term price pullback below $4,000.

• ETH onchain data reveals a strong rally potential to $4,500, highlighting key resistance and market shifts.

• Futures volume dominance by Ether over Bitcoin signals growing trader confidence and market interest.

• Bearish RSI divergences caution traders about possible short-term corrections, emphasizing the need for careful analysis.

ETH onchain data forecasts a $4,500 rally with caution on short-term RSI bearish signals. Stay informed with COINOTAG’s expert crypto insights.

ETH Onchain Data Highlights $4,500 Rally Potential

Ether (ETH) has consistently traded just below the $4,000 resistance since December 2025, with traders closely watching for a breakout. The +1σ active realized price band, currently near $4,500, represents a key target for bulls. This metric tracks the average cost of ETH actively exchanged on the blockchain, serving as a vital indicator of market sentiment and potential price ceilings.

Historical data from Glassnode shows this level acted as a strong resistance during the March 2024 peak and the 2020–21 bull cycle. A sustained move above this band has previously triggered rapid price surges but also increased volatility risks.

Shift in Market Interest Evident in Futures Volume

Ether perpetual futures volume has recently surpassed Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, signaling a major shift in trader focus toward ETH. This volume dominance reflects growing confidence and interest in Ethereum’s market potential. A prominent trader known as Byzantine General noted a strong bullish sentiment, stating, “ETH refuses to print any significant correction… It’s looking like a just f***ing send it moment.”

Supporting this bullish outlook, liquidation data reveals a dense cluster of short liquidations just above $4,000. A decisive move beyond this level could trigger liquidations totaling up to $930 million, potentially propelling ETH toward the $4,500 target.

What Are the Bearish RSI Divergences Signaling for ETH?

Despite bullish momentum, bearish RSI divergences on four-hour and daily charts indicate potential short-term exhaustion. While ETH price has made new local highs, the relative strength index (RSI) has not confirmed these moves, a classic sign of weakening buying pressure.

This divergence pattern resembles previous local tops and suggests a possible pullback if ETH fails to break convincingly above $4,000 with strong volume. The daily chart shows a persistent bearish divergence since ETH surpassed $3,500, highlighting ongoing caution among traders.

If a correction occurs, immediate support is expected just below $3,700, where a narrow fair value gap (FVG) exists. A deeper pullback could test the longer-term FVG between $3,200 and $3,300, risking a bearish structural break.

How Does This Impact Ethereum Traders?

Traders should monitor volume and RSI signals closely. A clean breakout above $4,000 could trigger significant short liquidations and a rapid price surge toward $4,500. Conversely, failure to sustain momentum may result in a short-term correction to key support zones.

Key Takeaways

• ETH’s active realized price band near $4,500 is a critical resistance level. Historical data confirms its significance as a price ceiling.
• Ether perpetual futures volume surpassing Bitcoin signals shifting market dynamics. This highlights increased trader interest in ETH.
• Bearish RSI divergences warn of possible short-term correction. Traders should watch for volume confirmation above $4,000.

Conclusion

ETH onchain data points to a strong rally potential toward $4,500, driven by shifting market interest and liquidation dynamics. However, bearish RSI divergences introduce caution for a possible short-term pullback below $4,000. Traders must balance optimism with technical signals to navigate upcoming price movements effectively.