Ethereum Could Reclaim $4.8K or Retreat Toward $4.5K After ATH Rally and Speculative Inflows

• ETH price hit $4,955 then retraced to $4,633 — on-chain signals show speculative strength.

• Realized Cap Impulse and Market Temperature point to heavy capital inflow and rising volatility.

• Santiment, CryptoQuant and Alphractal data: MVRV L/S at 31.54%; Coinbase Premium negative; taker ratio at 0.85.

Ethereum price: rallied to $4,955 then retraced to $4,633 — read on-chain analysis, near-term targets, and next steps.

What is driving Ethereum price after the new ATH?

Ethereum price surged to an all-time high on intense speculative inflows and a rising Market Temperature, then retraced as taker-sell activity and weakening institutional demand applied short-term downward pressure. These combined signals place ETH at a pivotal point: follow-through buying could reclaim $4.8k, while persistent selling risks a drop toward $4.5k.

How do on-chain metrics indicate speculative capital inflow?

Two primary indicators flagged speculative strength. Alphractal’s Realized Cap Impulse expanded, signaling growing long-term realized capitalization and increased capital absorption. Alphractal’s Market Temperature rose, showing elevated investor activity and heightened volatility risk.

Source: Alphractal (plain text)

When Realized Cap Impulse expands, it often reflects fresh capital moving into long-term positions and a concentration of realized gains. This can support higher prices if demand persists, but it also raises the risk of mean-reversion if speculative buyers rapidly de-risk.

Source: Alphractal (plain text)

What do profitability and holder behavior reveal?

Long-term holders have recorded historically strong profitability. Santiment reports Ethereum’s MVRV Long Short Difference at a yearly high of 31.54%, indicating LTH unrealized profits outpaced short-term holders. High LTH confidence can reduce immediate sell pressure, but elevated profit metrics often precede consolidation periods as some participants realize gains.

Source: Santiment (plain text)

Why are institutional flows cooling despite the rally?

Data from CryptoQuant shows a recent four-day stretch of negative Coinbase Premium Index, including a -0.0058 reading on 25 August, suggesting U.S. institutional demand softened. Simultaneously, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio fell to a seven-month low of 0.85, highlighting taker-seller dominance and short-term selling pressure.

Source: CryptoQuant (plain text)

Source: CryptoQuant (plain text)

Summary table: Key on-chain metrics (snapshot)

What’s next for ETH?

Market structure and on-chain data point to two clear scenarios. If retail and non‑institutional buyers maintain momentum and the taker ratio recovers, ETH is likely to reclaim the $4.8k zone and attempt a fresh high. If institutional demand stays muted and sellers dominate, a correction toward $4.5k is plausible.

Frequently Asked Questions

How high could Ethereum go after this rally?

Short term, reclaiming $4.8k would set ETH up to test and potentially exceed the prior ATH. Sustained upside requires renewed buying and improved taker ratios; otherwise heavy seller activity could limit upside and favor consolidation.

Should traders worry about the high MVRV L/S reading?

An MVRV L/S at 31.54% signals strong LTH unrealized profits, which can reduce immediate selling but often precedes consolidation as participants take gains. Traders should watch volume and taker metrics for conviction.

Key Takeaways

• Rapid inflows: Realized Cap Impulse and Market Temperature point to speculative capital driving the ATH.
• Profitability high: MVRV L/S at 31.54% shows long-term holder gains are elevated.
• Institutional pause: Negative Coinbase Premium and a 0.85 taker ratio highlight seller dominance and lower U.S. institutional demand.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s recent ATH and immediate retracement reflect intense speculative flows, high profitability among long-term holders, and a temporary pullback in institutional demand. Monitor Realized Cap Impulse, Market Temperature, Coinbase Premium, and the taker ratio for confirmation. COINOTAG will continue tracking these on-chain signals and price action; follow the analysis for updates.