Ethereum Eyes $4,000 Breakout Amid Whale Accumulation and Fusaka Upgrade

• Whale buying spikes: Investors like Justin Sun staked 45,000 ETH worth $154.5 million, per Arkham Intelligence data.

• Trading volumes hit record highs on Binance, exceeding $6 trillion in 2025, according to CryptoQuant.

• Open interest reaches $12.5 billion, up 10.2% in one day, raising leverage concerns but supporting bullish momentum with 75% historical reversal risk.

Ethereum price eyes $4,000 breakout as fundamentals strengthen with whale activity and Fusaka upgrade. Discover key on-chain trends and institutional signals driving ETH recovery—stay ahead in crypto markets today.

What is the current Ethereum price outlook?

Ethereum price has reclaimed the $3,600 level, trading at around $3,620 with a 7% gain over the past 24 hours, driven by renewed whale accumulation and positive network developments. Despite $507 million in ETF outflows reported by Farside Investors in early November, on-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates surging trading volumes and institutional re-entry, positioning ETH for potential upside toward $4,000 if key supports hold.

How does whale activity influence Ethereum price trends?

Large investors have ramped up ETH holdings during recent dips, with Arkham Intelligence noting significant stakes like TRON founder Justin Sun’s 45,000 ETH deposit valued at $154.5 million on November 5, followed by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee’s $70 million purchase the next day. This accumulation coincides with CryptoQuant data showing ETH trading volumes on Binance surpassing $6 trillion in 2025, two to three times higher than prior cycles, underscoring growing demand. Analyst Maartun highlights that open interest surged $1.9 billion, or 10.2%, in a single day, a pattern linked to short-term pullbacks in 75% of historical cases, yet current long/short ratios of 2.8 from CoinGlass reflect bullish trader sentiment with only 26.3% short positions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors are driving the recent Ethereum price recovery?

Ethereum price recovery stems from whale accumulation, record on-chain volumes, and anticipation of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3. Data from CryptoQuant shows spot average order sizes increasing post-dip, signaling institutional buying, while ETF outflows of $507 million per Farside Investors are offset by strong fundamentals like enhanced Layer-2 scalability.

Will the Fusaka upgrade boost Ethereum price long-term?

Yes, the Fusaka upgrade introduces PeerDAS for data availability, Verkle trees, and Layer-2 improvements potentially reaching tens of thousands of transactions per second, as noted by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and analyst Ryan Adams. This could drive developer activity and capital into Ethereum’s ecosystem, solidifying its role in Web3 and supporting sustained price appreciation beyond $4,000 if implemented successfully.

Key Takeaways

• Strong Whale Support: Accumulation by major players like Justin Sun and Tom Lee totals over $224 million, countering market volatility and bolstering ETH’s base above $3,500.
• Leverage Risks Persist: Open interest at $12.5 billion signals speculative heat, with historical data from analyst Maartun showing 75% chance of near-term reversals if longs unwind.
• Upgrade Catalyst Ahead: Fusaka’s scalability enhancements on December 3 could spark rallies; monitor for smooth rollout to target $4,500–$4,800.

Conclusion

Ethereum price fundamentals are strengthening with whale activity, institutional re-entry, and the upcoming Fusaka upgrade, despite ETF outflows and leverage concerns. As ETH tests $3,600 support, a breakout above $3,572 could confirm bullish momentum toward $4,000, offering opportunities for traders to capitalize on this evolving crypto landscape—position accordingly as network improvements unfold.

Traders eye the $3,600–$3,800 zone as ETH fundamentals strengthen despite the leveraged market and ETF outflows.

Ethereum (ETH) is experiencing upward momentum, holding above $3,600 following a volatile period in the broader cryptocurrency sector. This recovery positions the asset for a potential push toward $4,000, with a notable 7% increase observed in the last day.

The ETH price uptick reflects a blend of positive on-chain developments and tempered caution from derivatives indicators. Farside Investors data reveals ETF outflows exceeding $507 million in early November, yet whale purchases and forthcoming protocol enhancements maintain a favorable long-term perspective for Ethereum.

Whale activity and on-chain trends

Arkham Intelligence reports indicate that major holders capitalized on the recent downturn. On November 5, TRON founder Justin Sun committed 45,000 ETH, equivalent to approximately $154.5 million, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee adding $70 million in ETH shortly after.

This influx of large-scale buying correlates with CryptoQuant metrics displaying unprecedented ETH volumes on Binance, totaling over $6 trillion in 2025—far exceeding levels from earlier market cycles. Additionally, ETH open interest has risen to $12.5 billion, highlighting heightened speculation alongside risks from elevated leverage.

Analyst Maartun observes that Ethereum’s open interest increased by $1.9 billion, or 10.2%, within one day, a development that has preceded short-term corrections in 75% of similar past events. The three most recent comparable surges all led to subsequent price declines.

This suggests that Ethereum’s immediate trajectory may hinge on the stability of leveraged positions above $3,500 or the possibility of liquidation-driven drops prior to any further advances.

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The sustainability of current gains will be tested amid these dynamics.

Institutional re-entry signals

CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets’ latest insights point to a shift in behavior among institutional players. The spot average order size for Ethereum has risen significantly after the market correction, an indicator that often precedes accumulation by large entities.

During the slide to $3,200, on-chain activity from whales intensified, forming patterns akin to those at prior local lows and pre-rally compression stages.

Should this trend persist with the $3,000–$3,400 range serving as a firm floor, Ethereum may enter an accumulation phase of reduced volatility, paving the way for a bullish surge to $4,500–$4,800.

Fusaka upgrade as a structural turning point

Scheduled for December 3, the Fusaka upgrade represents a pivotal moment for Ethereum’s evolution. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has emphasized that Fusaka’s PeerDAS component is essential for advancing Ethereum’s scaling capabilities.

It delivers crucial improvements in scalability, including:

• PeerDAS data availability
• Verkle tree implementation,
• Layer-2 throughput enhancements potentially enabling transaction speeds of tens of thousands per second, as stated by Ryan Adams.

A successful deployment could invigorate developer engagement and attract fresh capital to Ethereum’s Layer-2 networks, cementing its status as Web3’s primary settlement infrastructure.

Ethereum eyes $4,000 breakout

Current indicators suggest Ethereum is gaining traction, with the price at $3,620, reflecting a 1.05% rise in the past day. This follows periods of stabilization under $3,500.

ETH trades 14.5% below its 50-day simple moving average of $3,981, indicating potential for rebound if upward pressure continues. CoinGlass reports a long/short ratio of 2.8, meaning just 26.3% of positions are short, pointing to prevailing optimism in the derivatives space.

Confirmation of an uptrend requires a breach and retest of $3,572, transforming it into a support level. Subsequent hurdles include $3,994 at the 100-day SMA and $4,179 at the 200-day SMA.

Such a close above $4,000 might initiate a lasting bullish phase, encouraging further buying on momentum.

On the lower end, support lies near $3,335, where the 200-day moving average has flipped from resistance to aid. Breaching this could lead to testing $3,100, a prior strong buying area.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 45, leaving space for additional gains without immediate overbought signals.

Maintaining above $3,600, coupled with whale buying and a 2.8 long/short ratio, positions ETH for a $4,000 approach.

Forward outlook: Scenarios for the next 4 weeks

These scenarios draw from combined quantitative metrics and qualitative factors, illustrating risk profiles rather than certainties. ETH leans toward upside potential, tempered by volatility from leverage and ETF pressures.

The COINOTAG’ take

Sustaining control above $3,600 could propel ETH to $3,950–$4,000 soon, with breaches targeting $4,550. CryptoQuant’s Maartun warns of leverage risks, where unwinding might cause temporary dips before recovery.

In-house evaluation supports a positive outlook, anticipating gains through the Fusaka period in early December, assuming stable market conditions and ETF trends.

Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum Prices soar as US nears end of 40-day shutdown

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