Ethereum eyes breakout as bullish momentum meets whale resistance and rising sell-side pressure.
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A 5.58 million ETH supply barrier near $1,860 could trigger sell pressure and stall momentum.
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Whale retreat and long-heavy positioning raise liquidation risks during Ethereum’s resistance breakout attempt.
Ethereum is at a pivotal point, testing key resistance levels amid varying on-chain signals that could influence price dynamics.
Rising reserves and long-heavy positions signal growing volatility risk
Exchange-related metrics raise caution despite the recent price increase.
The total Exchange Reserve climbed 4.32%, signaling that more ETH is being transferred to exchanges.
Typically, rising reserves suggest that investors are positioning for potential selling, especially as prices test resistance. While inflows to derivatives platforms could imply hedging, this uptick during a price climb often points to profit-taking preparations.
As such, the market may encounter higher volatility if the trend continues alongside waning buy-side demand.
Source: CryptoQuant
Long bias builds, but risks follow
The derivatives market showed aggressive long positioning that may be fueling ETH’s rally. Open Interest has surged by 10.07%, reaching $13.1228 billion, reflecting a wave of new positions.
Additionally, the Long/Short Ratio on Binance showed that 59.5% of traders are long, while only 40.5% are short. While this long dominance reflects bullish conviction, it also introduces liquidation risk.
If Ethereum fails to break above resistance convincingly, overly leveraged long traders could accelerate downside pressure through forced liquidations.
Large transaction volume is declining as whales reduce exposure
On-chain whale behavior does not confirm bullish momentum.
Large Transaction Volume dropped by 5.44%, flashing a bearish signal. In fact, such drops often suggest either hesitation or strategic exits by large holders.
Typically, a rise in Large Transaction activity precedes or accompanies major breakouts, but the current decline may reflect caution due to Ethereum’s proximity to a well-defined sell zone.
Therefore, limited whale support weakens confidence in the rally’s sustainability.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Ethereum confirms a bullish reversal with an inverted head and shoulders
Despite cautious on-chain signals, Ethereum’s price structure looks technically optimistic.
A clean breakout above a long-term descending trendline has occurred alongside the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
This classic bullish reversal setup suggests the potential for a sustained uptrend if the price holds above the neckline.
Moreover, the Parabolic SAR flipped bullish, reinforcing upside momentum. As long as ETH holds above the neckline, a continuation remains likely.
Source: TradingView
Can Ethereum break past $1,860 and sustain its rally?
Ethereum’s current momentum is supported by strong technical patterns and retail enthusiasm.
However, on-chain metrics reveal substantial resistance and cautious whale behavior, paired with elevated exchange reserves and aggressive long positioning.
If ETH successfully breaks through the $1,860 resistance zone, it may trigger a fresh leg up. Otherwise, failure to do so could result in volatility spikes and a sharp retracement.
