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Ethereum’s long-term holders are increasingly selling their positions, as evidenced by the all-time high in Ethereum Liveliness, signaling potential bearish momentum.
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The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remains negative, reflecting diminished buying interest and reinforcing downward pressure on ETH prices.
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According to COINOTAG analysis, continued sell-offs by long-term holders could push ETH prices down to critical support levels near $2,185 or $2,027, unless fresh demand emerges.
Ethereum’s long-term holders increase sell-offs amid negative Chaikin Money Flow, risking a price drop to $2,185 or lower unless new buying interest reverses the trend.
Ethereum Liveliness Reaches Unprecedented Levels, Indicating Rising Sell Pressure
On June 20, Ethereum’s Liveliness metric surged to a record 0.69, marking a significant shift in the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). This on-chain indicator, provided by Glassnode, measures the ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days accumulated, effectively tracking the movement of dormant ETH tokens. A rising Liveliness value suggests that long-term holders are moving their assets onto exchanges, likely to liquidate positions.
This unprecedented spike reflects growing uncertainty among seasoned investors regarding Ethereum’s short-term price trajectory. Typically, a decline in Liveliness signals accumulation as holders withdraw coins from exchanges, but the current trend indicates a shift toward distribution, which often precedes price corrections.
Supporting this bearish outlook, Ethereum’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has turned negative, currently standing at -0.08. The CMF measures capital inflows and outflows, and a negative reading confirms reduced buying pressure and heightened selling activity.
These combined metrics suggest that Ethereum is experiencing a phase of distribution, where long-term holders are increasingly offloading their positions amid waning market enthusiasm.
Implications of Negative Chaikin Money Flow on ETH Market Dynamics
The negative CMF reading is particularly significant because it quantifies the flow of funds into Ethereum relative to outflows. A sustained negative CMF often precedes price declines, as it indicates that sellers dominate the market. This trend aligns with the observed increase in Ethereum Liveliness, reinforcing the narrative of growing sell pressure from long-term holders.
Market analysts emphasize that the CMF’s downward trajectory reflects a broader lack of confidence in Ethereum’s immediate price recovery, which could deter new investors and exacerbate selling pressure. This environment creates a challenging backdrop for ETH, especially as macroeconomic factors and regulatory uncertainties continue to influence investor sentiment.
Potential Price Correction Toward May Lows Amid Persistent Sell-Offs
Ethereum’s price currently hovers around $2,429, but the ongoing liquidation by long-term holders could trigger a deeper correction. Technical analysis suggests that if the selling momentum persists, ETH may test support levels at $2,185. Failure to hold this floor could lead to a further decline toward $2,027, a price last seen in May.
However, the outlook is not entirely bearish. A resurgence in buying interest, potentially driven by renewed investor confidence or positive market catalysts, could reverse the downtrend. In such a scenario, Ethereum’s price might rebound toward $2,745, signaling a recovery phase.
Traders and investors are advised to monitor on-chain metrics closely, as shifts in long-term holder behavior and capital flows often precede significant price movements. Staying informed about these indicators can provide valuable insights for strategic decision-making in the volatile crypto market.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s record-high Liveliness and negative Chaikin Money Flow collectively highlight increased selling activity among long-term holders, signaling potential near-term price weakness. While critical support levels at $2,185 and $2,027 are at risk, the market remains sensitive to shifts in demand that could alter this trajectory. Investors should remain vigilant, leveraging on-chain data and technical indicators to navigate the evolving Ethereum landscape effectively.
