Ethereum May Need to Reclaim $4,841 to Resume Rally as Oversold RSI Hints at Bounce; Failure Could Pull ETH to $2,750

• ETH must reclaim $4,841 to reverse the downtrend and target $5,864.

• ETH’s 4‑hour RSI hit 14.5 — the lowest since April 2025 — hinting at a potential short-term bounce.

• A whale bought $235.7M in ETH this week and now holds about $19.4M in unrealized losses, underscoring dip-buy interest.

Meta description: Ethereum price outlook — ETH must reclaim $4,841 to avoid a drop to $2,750; watch RSI, open interest and whale activity. Read analysis now.

What is the current Ethereum price outlook?

Ethereum price is testing a critical inflection zone: reclaiming $4,841 is essential to confirm a bullish reversal toward $5,864; failure risks a pullback to $2,750. Short-term indicators (RSI, open interest) suggest both a possible bounce and the risk of deeper correction depending on follow-through.

How can ETH reclaim $4,841 and what happens if it fails?

For ETH to break the downtrend, buying pressure must push price above $4,841 with sustained volume. A decisive close above that level would re-open the path to prior highs near $5,864. If momentum stalls, on-chain metrics and realized-price pressure increase the likelihood of a corrective move toward $2,750.

Why is the $3,800–$4,841 zone critical for ETH?

Front-loaded support and resistance define market structure. The $3,800 area represents near-term support while $4,841 is the key breakout threshold. Analyst commentary (Ali Charts on X) highlights that a successful reclaim of $4,841 would signal a trend change; failure would amplify sell-side pressure toward $2,750.

Tweet excerpt: ETH must break $4,841 to reverse the downtrend and aim for $5,864. Fail, and a correction to $2,750 comes into play. pic.twitter.com/ltgOtwXAWu

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 26, 2025

Ethereum traded around $3,913 at the time of reporting, a roughly 14% decline over the prior week as volume surged past $57 billion. On-chain metric MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands show ETH between the +0.5σ and +1.0σ bands as of late September 2025, indicating elevated realized-value divergence.

How does the RSI support a potential reversal?

ETH price momentum indicators are mixed. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index plunged from 82 on Sept. 13 to 14.5 — the lowest since April 2025. Historically, similar extreme RSI lows (April and June 2025) preceded meaningful rallies, suggesting a possible short-term bounce if buying volume appears.

Source: Crypto Rover via X

When did open interest and whale activity influence the recent move?

Open interest recently experienced a sharp reset, one of the largest since early 2024, wiping excessive leverage and reducing short-term speculative pressure. Analyst Darkfost notes this reset — particularly on major derivatives venues — left the market in cleaner condition.

At the same time, a whale accumulated approximately $235.7 million in ETH this week and currently shows roughly $19.4 million in unrealized losses. This behavior signals institutional-sized dip buying even as some holders cash profits given the realized price of $2,436.

Frequently Asked Questions

What if ETH fails to break $4,841?

If ETH fails at $4,841, selling pressure may escalate and push price toward the next major support near $2,750. Traders should watch stop-flow and leverage removal as these can accelerate declines.

How should traders interpret the current whale activity?

Whale accumulation of $235.7M in ETH, despite showing $19.4M in paper losses, indicates larger participants may be positioning for longer-term upside while retail decides on near-term profit-taking.

Key Takeaways

• Critical level: Reclaiming $4,841 is necessary to confirm a bullish reversal toward $5,864.
• Momentum signal: RSI at 14.5 suggests a potential short-term bounce but needs volume confirmation.
• On-chain context: Open interest reset and whale accumulation indicate reduced leverage and strategic dip buying.

Conclusion

In summary, the Ethereum price outlook is balanced between a potential bounce from oversold conditions and the risk of a deeper correction if $4,841 remains out of reach. Monitor RSI, open interest, MVRV bands and whale flows for confirmation. COINOTAG will update this analysis as on-chain data and price action evolve.