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Ethereum faces significant downward pressure as large holders reduce their ETH balances while mid-sized wallets increase, signaling potential market shifts.
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Recent on-chain data reveals a major whale moving over $237 million worth of ETH to exchanges, coinciding with a five-day streak of rising inflows into Binance.
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According to COINOTAG sources, this redistribution among wallet sizes suggests increased selling activity, which may weigh heavily on Ether’s price trajectory.
Ethereum’s price faces a potential 25% drop amid whale selling and technical resistance, with mid-sized wallets growing and bearish signals mounting.
Technical Analysis Highlights $1,600 ETH Support as Key Level
Ether’s recent price action shows a critical breach below the symmetrical triangle’s lower trendline, a pattern that had supported the asset since mid-2022. This breakdown is significant because it undermines a multi-year technical structure that many traders watch closely.
The 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) near $1,600 has acted as a temporary floor, but the failure to sustain gains above the 50-period EMA around $2,545 indicates strong resistance. This confluence of resistance points has repeatedly halted bullish momentum, suggesting that ETH could revisit the $1,600 level if selling pressure persists.
Additional technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), remain below a descending trendline established over several years, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The inability of RSI to break above this resistance signals weakening buyer enthusiasm and increases the probability of further downside.
On-Chain Data Reveals Whale Selling and Wallet Redistribution
On-chain metrics provide further evidence of bearish dynamics. Two prominent Ethereum wallets, identified as 0x14e4 and 0x26Bb, recently unstaked and withdrew nearly 96,000 ETH, valued at approximately $237 million. A substantial portion of these funds has already been transferred to exchanges such as HTX, Bybit, and OKX, indicating a readiness to liquidate.
Lookonchain’s analysis suggests these wallets belong to a single large whale entity, whose activity aligns with increased ETH inflows observed on Binance over the past five days. This pattern of movement from large holders to exchanges often precedes price declines, as it reflects growing supply pressure in the market.
Binance Inflows and Wallet Cohort Shifts Signal Market Rebalancing
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, has experienced consistent ETH inflows for five consecutive days, according to CryptoQuant data. This trend is typically interpreted as a bearish signal, as it implies that holders are preparing to sell or trade their assets.
Complementary data from Glassnode reveals a notable shift in ETH distribution among wallet cohorts. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have seen a sharp decline in their balances since mid-May, while those holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have increased their share.
This redistribution may indicate that large holders are fragmenting their positions into smaller wallets or transferring ETH to new addresses, potentially to facilitate selling or repositioning. Such activity tends to increase market volatility and can contribute to downward price pressure.
Contrasting Market Views: Analyst Optimism Amid Bearish Signals
Despite the current bearish technical and on-chain indicators, some analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Ethereum. Agela, a noted market analyst, emphasizes that a breakout above the weekly RSI resistance is imminent and could trigger a significant price rally.
According to Agela, the weekly RSI has been making lower lows since early 2024, limiting Ether’s ability to reclaim the $4,000 level. A reversal in this momentum would act as a catalyst for renewed buying interest and price appreciation.
Other market commentators predict that sustained capital inflows into ETH-focused investment funds and supportive technical setups could drive Ether toward $10,000 over time, highlighting the divergence between short-term bearish pressures and long-term bullish potential.
Conclusion
Ethereum currently faces a complex market environment characterized by strong technical resistance and significant whale selling activity. The redistribution of ETH from large holders to mid-sized wallets and exchanges suggests increased selling pressure, which may push prices toward the critical $1,600 support level. However, contrasting analyst perspectives underscore the potential for a bullish reversal if key momentum indicators break higher. Investors should monitor on-chain flows and technical signals closely to navigate this evolving landscape effectively.
