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The Ethereum market faces significant challenges as its ETH/BTC pairing indicates potential downturns as we move deeper into 2025.
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Recent analysis highlights that despite brief recoveries, Ether’s position against Bitcoin continues to weaken, reflecting broader market sentiments.
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Market expert @CarpeNoctom emphasized, “The absence of bullish divergence on the ETH/BTC weekly chart underlines ongoing bearish momentum.”
Ethereum struggles against Bitcoin as market analysis points to significant declines ahead, raising concerns for investors in 2025.
Ether Faces Continued Bearish Pressure Against Bitcoin
The ongoing bearish trend of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), against Bitcoin (BTC) is highlighted by technical indicators suggesting further downside risks. As of March 2025, the relative strength index (RSI) on ETH’s three-day timeframe remains significantly below 30, historically a critical indicator of potential rebounds. Nevertheless, previous oversold conditions have not marked decisive bottoms, indicating that the bearish momentum may persist.
Repeated Breakdown Patterns Indicate Systematic Declines
Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC trading pair has witnessed a series of concerning breakdowns, accruing losses of 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% in rapid succession. Market indicators, including the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), consistently trending lower, solidify the bearish outlook. Historical data reveals that during previous downturns, ETH has failed to establish a bullish divergence, suggesting that further declines could be imminent.
Onchain Data and ETF Outflows Signal Weak Market Sentiment
Current on-chain metrics and the downturn in Ethereum-focused ETF inflows signal a waning market interest. March 2025 has seen a notable 9.8% decline in net flows into US-based spot ETH ETFs, bringing totals down to $2.54 billion. This sharp contrast to Bitcoin’s more stable influx of $35.74 billion, which only fell by 2.35% during the same timeframe, further emphasizes Ethereum’s sluggish market presence.
Gas Fees Reflect Reduced Network Activity
Additionally, Ethereum’s median gas fees have plummeted to approximately 1.12 GWEI, marking a decrease of nearly 50 times compared to one year prior. According to insights from data analytics provider Nansen, the reduced gas consumption reflects a shift in network activity towards competitors, particularly Solana and various Layer 2 solutions. “Despite momentary rallies in ETH prices, meaningful recovery in network activity remains elusive,” Nansen stated, underlining the challenges faced by the Ethereum ecosystem.
Potential for Further Declines in the ETH/BTC Pair
The technical analysis indicates that the ETH/BTC pair is potentially forming a bear pennant pattern, characterized by consolidation after recent downtrends. This pattern typically precedes further downside potential. A breakdown below the established lower trendline could trigger a decline target of approximately 0.01968 BTC, representing an additional 15% drop from current levels, solidifying a bearish forecast.
Critical Resistance Levels to Watch For
Amid these challenges, a breakthrough above the upper resistance of the bear pennant could indeed invalidate the current bearish perspective. If the ETH/BTC pair can reclaim the 50-day EMA as support, it would indicate a shift in market dynamics. Yet, until such movements occur, the prevailing trend suggests a continued struggle for Ethereum against Bitcoin.
Conclusion
The landscape for Ethereum in 2025 remains challenging, with various indicators pointing to persistent bearish behavior against Bitcoin. Investors should remain vigilant and consider market conditions carefully. As the ETH/BTC pair battles against prevailing downward trends, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for navigating future investment decisions.
