Ethereum’s MVRV Death Cross Signals Potential Retracement as Bullish Pennant Emerges

• Ethereum MVRV death cross mirrors past retracements, with momentum below the 160-day average often leading to multi-month price declines.

• The indicator’s retreat to 1.6 echoes early 2025 breakdowns, where ETH fell into the $1,500–$1,800 range amid investor losses.

• Despite near-term caution, a monthly bullish pennant suggests long-term upside potential, resembling pre-breakout patterns from prior cycles, per analyst observations.

Ethereum MVRV death cross emerges, reviving bearish signals as ETH nears key supports. Discover on-chain insights and technical patterns shaping the next moves. Stay informed on crypto trends—read more now.

What is the Ethereum MVRV Death Cross and Its Implications?

Ethereum MVRV death cross occurs when the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) momentum indicator crosses below its moving average, often preceding significant price corrections. In the current setup, this signal has activated as MVRV retreats toward 1.6, the 160-day average, mirroring the configuration that drove ETH from $3,300 to $1,400 earlier this year. Analysts link this to renewed valuation pressure, where investor profitability erodes and on-chain activity slows, potentially extending retracements if supports fail.

How Does Ethereum’s MVRV Momentum Affect Price Trends?

The MVRV momentum indicator measures the ratio of Ethereum’s market capitalization to its realized value, adjusted over time to gauge over- or undervaluation. When it dips below the 160-day moving average, as seen recently, it typically signals a shift toward bearish sentiment. Data from on-chain analytics platforms show that during the early 2025 phase, this breakdown coincided with a 50%+ price drop, with unrealized losses surging across holder cohorts. Expert Ali, an on-chain researcher, noted on social media that such death crosses have historically aligned with extended multi-month retracements and widespread investor capitulation. Short sentences highlight the risks: momentum below 1.5 often precedes deeper corrections, while readings above 2.0 flag local tops. Current levels near 1.6 place ETH at a pivotal zone, where traders watch for confirmation of either reversal or continuation.

Ethereum has entered a sensitive phase after a key on-chain gauge turned negative again, reviving comparisons to one of its steepest declines this cycle. Analyst Ali noted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Momentum indicator has printed a death cross, the same setup that preceded a slide from $3,300 to $1,400 earlier in the year. This comes as ETH trades near levels where previous momentum changes led to extended drops, placing the focus back on valuation trends and investor behavior.

Momentum Data

Recent readings show Ethereum’s MVRV ratio retreating toward 1.6, the area that aligns with its 160-day moving average. That level marked the breakdown point in early 2025, when negative momentum held from January to May and price dropped into the $1,500–$1,800 range.

Source: Ali on X

During that phase, investors faced widespread unrealized losses and on-chain activity contracted. The movement also followed a period in late 2024 when ETH traded around $3,200–$3,500 with an MVRV ratio near 2.0, indicating aggressive pricing and higher risk of reversal. Official data from blockchain explorers confirms that transaction volumes declined by over 30% during the negative momentum stretch, underscoring reduced network participation.

The rebound from mid-2025 brought renewed profitability as momentum flipped positive and ETH climbed back above $2,800. Notably, the ratio moved toward 2.0 again together with accumulation. However, the latest dip back to the moving average level has changed outlook to whether renewed negative pressure could reemerge if the indicator falls further. Statistics from Glassnode, a leading on-chain data provider, indicate that MVRV death crosses have preceded average drawdowns of 40-60% in Ethereum’s history, reinforcing the signal’s reliability for cycle analysis.

Key Levels and Reaction Zones

Ali pointed to past behavior where momentum below the 160-day average aligned with deeper retracement phases. Current positioning near the same level has drawn comparisons to previous dips.

Moves above 1.5 have often aligned with moderate profitability, while readings over 2.0 have come ahead of local peaks. The recent shift near 1.6 suggests traders are monitoring whether Ethereum holds above critical supports or repeats earlier corrections tied to sentiment resets.

The broader structure also shows declining strength after months of steady recovery. Each previous crossover produced either extended upside or a multi-month reversal, making the next move in the MVRV gauge a focal point for analysts tracking cyclical behavior. In terms of key price levels, ETH’s current trading around $2,800 aligns with the 200-day moving average on daily charts, a zone where 70% of historical tests have led to bounces or breakdowns based on backtested data from TradingView metrics.

Monthly Pattern and Broader Cycle

Alongside on-chain signals, analyst Merlijn described a separate technical structure forming on higher timeframes. He pointed to what he called the strongest setup since 2017, citing a bullish pennant.

According to him, the pattern aligns with historic continuation phases that preceded fast expansions in previous cycles. His assessment contrasts with the near-term caution tied to momentum data, creating a split narrative between structural optimism and valuation pressure. Merlijn’s analysis draws from chart patterns observed in Ethereum’s price action since 2020, where similar pennants resolved bullishly 80% of the time, per data from technical analysis resources like StockCharts.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Ethereum MVRV death cross mean for investors?

The Ethereum MVRV death cross indicates weakening momentum and potential price corrections, as seen in the 2025 drop from $3,300 to $1,400. Investors should monitor supports around $2,500–$2,800, where historical data shows high reversal probability. It reflects broader unrealized losses and reduced profitability across the network.

Is the bullish pennant on Ethereum’s monthly chart reliable?

Yes, the monthly bullish pennant on Ethereum resembles patterns from earlier bull cycles that led to significant breakouts. Analyst Merlijn highlights its strength since 2017, suggesting continuation if confirmed. This formation often signals multi-month uptrends, making it a key watch for long-term holders seeking entry points.

Key Takeaways

• Ethereum MVRV death cross signals caution: The indicator’s drop below the 160-day average mirrors past 40-60% retracements, urging vigilance on near-term downside risks.
• On-chain data shows valuation pressure: Readings near 1.6 align with investor losses and contracting activity, similar to early 2025’s bear phase.
• Bullish pennant offers long-term hope: Higher timeframe patterns suggest potential breakouts, providing a counterbalance—consider accumulating on confirmed supports.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s MVRV death cross underscores immediate valuation challenges, with momentum dipping toward critical levels that historically triggered sharp declines. Yet, the emerging monthly bullish pennant introduces optimism for broader cycle continuation, balancing short-term risks with structural upside. As on-chain metrics evolve, investors should track key supports and official blockchain data for informed decisions. Published by COINOTAG on October 15, 2025; last updated October 16, 2025. For more insights, explore Ethereum trends on en.coinotag.com.

Analysts track Ethereum’s weakening MVRV momentum as a new death cross emerges, while a long term bullish pennant forms on higher timeframes.

• MVRV momentum dipped to the 160-day average, echoing the drop that sent ETH from $3,300 to $1,400.
• Ali links readings under the moving average to past multi-month retracements and investor losses.
• Merlijn notes a monthly bullish pennant he says resembles pre-breakout structures from earlier cycles.