Fidelity Says Over 28% of Bitcoin May Be Locked by 2025, Potentially Tightening Supply and Affecting Prices

• 28%+ of Bitcoin supply may be illiquid by 2025, per Fidelity Digital Assets

• Corporate treasuries and long-term holders drive sustained lockups that reduce circulating supply.

• Historical illiquidity episodes correlate with elevated volatility and potential upward price pressure.

Meta description: Bitcoin scarcity rises as Fidelity forecasts 28% locked supply by 2025 — read implications for price, institutions, and custody. Explore analysis and steps.

What does Fidelity’s forecast mean for Bitcoin scarcity?

Fidelity Digital Assets’ analysis indicates growing Bitcoin scarcity as long-term holders and corporate treasuries lock more coins, potentially placing over 28% of supply out of circulation by 2025. This shift tightens market liquidity and can magnify price moves when demand changes.

How are long-term holders and corporate treasuries driving illiquidity?

Long-term holders—addresses and entities that have not moved coins for extended periods—and corporate treasuries buying and holding large positions are primary drivers of illiquidity.

Entities holding >1,000 BTC and institutional allocations reduce exchange-available supply, creating a structural scarcity effect even if overall demand rises only modestly.

Why does increased illiquidity matter for Bitcoin price?

Illiquidity reduces the available float, which can amplify price moves when demand shifts. Historical analysis shows periods of constrained supply often correspond with sharp rallies or exaggerated swings, driven by concentrated accumulation among long-term holders and institutional buyers.

Fidelity Digital Assets cites this supply-side dynamic as a structural change versus previous cycles where more coins remained tradable.

When might markets feel the strongest effects of this lockup?

Market effects typically emerge as demand rises or during liquidity shocks (e.g., macro events or regulatory developments). With projected lockups intensifying through 2025, even moderate demand increases could translate to outsized price responses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What regulatory or operational changes could alter this trajectory?

Regulatory rulings, tax policy changes, or shifts in institutional custody solutions could change incentives for corporate treasuries and funds to hold or sell Bitcoin.

Increased adoption of self-custody and enhanced institutional custody infrastructure may further entrench long-term holding trends, reinforcing scarcity.

How to assess the market impact of increasing Bitcoin scarcity

Follow these steps to evaluate implications:

1. Measure supply concentration: Track large-holder balances and corporate treasury disclosures for shifts in locked supply.
2. Monitor exchange flows: Declining exchange reserves typically signal rising illiquidity.
3. Evaluate demand signals: Realized demand from on-chain activity, institutional announcements, and macro liquidity conditions matter.

Key Takeaways

• Supply concentration rises: Over 28% of Bitcoin could be effectively illiquid by 2025 per Fidelity Digital Assets.
• Market sensitivity increases: Reduced float makes prices more responsive to demand shocks and institutional flows.
• Actionable monitoring: Track large-holder balances, exchange reserves, and institutional disclosures to gauge risk and opportunity.

Conclusion

Fidelity Digital Assets’ forecast of rising Bitcoin scarcity highlights a structural market shift driven by long-term holders and corporate treasuries. Bitcoin illiquidity raises market sensitivity and could influence price dynamics over the next several years. Readers should monitor supply concentration, exchange flows, and institutional activity for emerging signals and risk management insights.

Published by COINOTAG — 2025-09-17. Updated 2025-09-17.