Hyperliquid’s HYPE token faces a looming monthly supply overhang of about $410–$500 million when a 24‑month vesting schedule begins on Nov. 29, creating material sell‑pressure risk despite ongoing buybacks and emerging treasury demand.
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$11.9 billion HYPE vested over 24 months, causing potential monthly unlocks of ~$500M.
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Current buybacks could absorb roughly 17% of monthly supply, leaving a sizable overhang.
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Rival DEX activity and treasury strategies reduce but do not eliminate near‑term downward pressure.
HYPE token vesting: Hyperliquid faces a $410M monthly overhang starting Nov 29; read analysis, risks, and next steps for investors.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token faces a monthly supply overhang of over $400 million as a 24‑month vesting schedule begins Nov. 29, Maelstrom Fund warns.
What is the HYPE token vesting schedule and why does it matter?
HYPE token vesting is a 24‑month distribution plan that will release roughly $11.9 billion in tokens to team and stakeholders, starting Nov. 29. The schedule matters because monthly unlocks approaching $500 million could overwhelm current buybacks and create acute selling pressure that risks short‑term price stability.
The Maelstrom Fund, associated with Arthur Hayes, flagged the vesting as a potential “Sword of Damocles” moment for Hyperliquid. Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert estimates buybacks absorb about 17% of monthly supply, leaving an approximate $410 million overhang.
Put simply: large, predictable token unlocks can increase circulating supply fast. That intensifies downward pressure if recipients sell to realize gains.
Source: Maelstrom
How large are the monthly unlocks and what is the estimated overhang?
Maelstrom’s analysis shows the vesting will distribute $11.9 billion over 24 months. That equates to up to ~$500 million released each month at current valuations. Buybacks currently absorb an estimated 17% of that monthly release.
Resulting overhang is estimated near $410 million monthly. That figure is calculated by subtracting buyback capacity from projected monthly unlocks. The overhang represents tokens potentially entering sell pressure if recipients choose to liquidate.
“Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid dev. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life changing sum in tokens is starting to vest; and it’s only one click away,” Ruppert wrote in the research brief.
Treasuries and buyback programs, such as the $583 million HYPE allocation attributed to Sonnet BioTherapeutics’ treasury initiative, add demand. But even combined cash and treasury purchases are small relative to the planned unlock cadence.
Source: Maelstrom
Why could competition and strategic moves amplify volatility?
Competition from rival protocols can shift liquidity and trader attention quickly. Aster, a decentralized perpetuals exchange linked to Binance co‑founder CZ, briefly reached $2 billion TVL amid its APX token launch. Increased competition can reduce fee revenue growth assumptions and make large token unlocks harder to absorb.
Maelstrom notes the timing of rival token activity shortly before the vesting start could be consequential. Market dynamics—liquidity, derivative flows, and treasury buys—interact with unlock schedules to determine realized price impact.
Arthur Hayes, who sold his HYPE holdings recently, has previously projected long‑term upside (a 126x scenario to 2028) while acknowledging the near‑term vesting could cause volatility. He sold his stake partially to fund personal purchases, per public commentary.
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How should investors evaluate the risk?
Assess token unlocking schedules before taking new positions. Key steps: review vesting timelines, estimate monthly unlocks, compare against buyback and treasury demand, and monitor competitor token launches. Short‑term traders should prioritize liquidity and downside protection.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the HYPE vesting schedule begin?
Vesting begins Nov. 29 under the announced 24‑month schedule, which will distribute $11.9 billion in HYPE tokens to team and stakeholders in equal or scheduled tranches.
How much monthly HYPE could hit the market?
Monthly releases are projected near $500 million at current valuations, with buybacks covering roughly 17%, leaving an approximate $410 million potential overhang each month.
Can treasuries and buybacks prevent price declines?
They can mitigate some selling pressure. Treasury strategies (e.g., Sonnet’s allocated HYPE and cash) and buybacks provide demand, but current numbers appear insufficient to absorb the full monthly unlocks.
Key Takeaways
- Vesting scale: $11.9B in HYPE vests over 24 months, creating large predictable supply increases.
- Monthly overhang: Estimated $410M of potential sell pressure remains after accounting for buybacks.
- Investor action: Review vesting timelines, monitor treasury demand, and prioritize liquidity management.
Conclusion
The HYPE token vesting schedule presents a clear near‑term supply shock that market participants must factor into positions. While buybacks and treasury strategies provide some buffer, they currently appear insufficient to neutralize the projected monthly overhang. Investors and protocol stakeholders should monitor unlock cadence, competitor activity, and treasury deployments to assess evolving risk and opportunity.
