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Recent analyses highlight multiple bearish divergence signals in Bitcoin, suggesting a possible price reversal as early as June 2025.
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This pattern bears resemblance to the 2021 trends observed in technical indicators like the RSI and MACD, alongside a notable decline in MicroStrategy’s stock.
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Despite weakening momentum indicators, institutional investments in Bitcoin persist, indicating that 2025 might diverge significantly from previous market cycles.
As Bitcoin shows signs of potential reversal, this article examines critical divergence signals and ongoing institutional investments shaping the market outlook.
Divergence Signals Warn of a Potential Bitcoin Correction
The first red flag arises from technical indicators in the monthly timeframe, often overlooked in favor of shorter trends.
A recent report from 10xResearch indicates Bitcoin has hit resistance, exhibiting a price pattern reminiscent of the peaks formed in 2021. Current trends suggest a double-peak formation, where the latest peak surpasses the previous high, a model being mirrored again in 2025.
Analyst Matthew Hyland has identified a bearish divergence within the RSI on the weekly chart. Similarly, Mitch Ray emphasized a confirmed bearish divergence using the MACD-H indicator on the daily timeframe. Collectively, these signals indicate a potential weakening of Bitcoin’s upward momentum, prompting concerns of an impending correction.
Adding to the divergence analysis, analyst James Van Straten has noted a stark discrepancy between MicroStrategy’s stock price and Bitcoin. The provided chart illustrates that in late 2021, MicroStrategy’s stock experienced a significant decline, while Bitcoin surged to an unprecedented high of $69,000. Presently, MicroStrategy’s shares have similarly decreased by about 50% since late 2024, yet Bitcoin continues to reach new highs exceeding $111,000.
This growing divergence prompts questions about potential corrections in Bitcoin’s trajectory, reminiscent of the market dynamics seen during the 2021–2022 cycle. According to 10xResearch, “Bitcoin just posted another strong month, but beneath the surface, cracks are forming. A growing divergence between price action, volatility, and retail behavior suggests the cycle may be shifting. Major players, such as MicroStrategy, are slowing their purchases, and key altcoins are slipping below critical support levels. Volumes are fading, momentum is fracturing, and the technical signs are eerily similar to what we saw in 2021, just before things turned.”
In contrast to these potential warning signals, COINOTAG highlights a wave of Bitcoin accumulation from various industries including gaming, healthcare, and retail. Bitwise analysts predict institutional capital inflows may reach $426.9 billion by 2026, potentially locking up 20% of Bitcoin’s entire supply.
These dynamics represent a possible transformative factor between the current 2025 market landscape and that of 2021, suggesting that direct comparisons might oversimplify the evolving ecosystem.
Conclusion
The interplay of bearish divergence signals alongside robust institutional accumulation presents a complex picture for Bitcoin’s future. As trends develop, investors must navigate these dual narratives carefully. With historical patterns re-emerging and institutional interest showing resilience, the path forward could diverge significantly from prior cycles.
