JPMorgan Lowers Bitcoin Production Cost Estimates!

• JPMorgan has reduced its Bitcoin production cost estimate following recent revisions to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index methodology.
• Analysts suggest that changes in electricity prices will now have a smaller impact on Bitcoin mining costs.
• The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance revised its methodology last week to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the index that tracks and predicts Bitcoin network electricity consumption.

JPMorgan analysts predict that Bitcoin production costs could fall based on this new method, potentially signaling challenging times ahead for miners in the coming year.

JPMorgan’s New Report on Bitcoin Mining

JPMorgan has lowered its Bitcoin production cost estimate following recent revisions to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index methodology. The team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, stated in a published report:

“With the new methodology, the current Bitcoin production cost would decline from around $21,000 under the old methodology to roughly $18,000.”

According to the analysts, changes in electricity prices will now have a smaller impact on Bitcoin mining costs. Based on current market data, BTC is priced at approximately $25,780. The analysts continued:

“We previously estimated that a one-cent change in electricity cost per kWh would lead to a $4,300 change in Bitcoin production cost. We see this sensitivity diminishing after the revised CBECI methodology but only modestly, to around $3,800. This sensitivity will mechanically double after the 2024 halving event.”

This implies that any changes in electricity costs will have a greater impact on overall expenses for miners, especially considering the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which will halve the rewards received by miners. Therefore, cost management will become even more crucial for miners.

JPMorgan emphasized that Wednesday’s halving event could be a stress test for Bitcoin miners, particularly due to the high sensitivity of Bitcoin production costs to electricity costs.

New CBECI Methodology

The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance revised its methodology last week to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the index that tracks and predicts Bitcoin network electricity consumption. The new CBECI methodology recognizes that not all mining equipment contributing to Bitcoin’s hash rate should be treated equally because miners often upgrade to newer, more efficient equipment or run a mix of machines with varying efficiencies. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance explained:

“As a result, we conducted this analysis to test the hypothesis that increases in network hash rate can likely be attributed to more recently introduced mining hardware. This hypothesis was based on U.S. import data, and we sought additional evidence to confirm it.”