Bitcoin $136,000 target: Analyst Alex Krüger says that with realized volatility near 40% annual and a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve cut, a ~23% move over four months could push Bitcoin toward roughly $136,000, provided liquidity improves and selling pressure from large holders eases.
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Markets expect a 25-basis-point Fed cut; Krüger models a 23% upside to ~ $136,000
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Realized volatility near 40% and improved liquidity are key catalysts to monitor.
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Risks include reduced buying from large buyers and profit-taking by long-term holders.
Bitcoin $136,000 target: Analyst-backed model ties 40% volatility and a Fed cut to a 23% rally — read what traders should watch and prepare to act.
How can Bitcoin reach $136,000?
Bitcoin $136,000 target rests on a volatility-scaling model and improved liquidity after a Fed policy easing. If realized volatility stays near 40% annually, projected scaling across four months implies ~23% upside, which applied to current levels points toward roughly $136,000.
How will the Federal Reserve decision affect Bitcoin?
With the Federal Reserve scheduled to announce its policy decision on 18 September 2025, markets are pricing a 25-basis-point cut. A dovish tone could ease US dollar strength and boost liquidity. Reduced rates historically correlate with higher risk asset flows. Short-term volatility may spike around the announcement.
Frequently Asked Questions
What assumptions drive the $136,000 Bitcoin scenario?
The scenario assumes realized volatility near 40% annually, a four-month volatility scaling that implies ~23% upside, and improved liquidity after a 25-basis-point Fed cut. It also assumes no major additional sell pressure from large holders.
How should traders position ahead of the Fed decision?
Use risk management: reduce oversized leverage, set clear stop-loss levels, and monitor liquidity. Consider smaller position sizing until directional conviction increases post-announcement. Voice-search answer: Trim leverage and wait for post-Fed clarity.
Analyst View and Market Context
Analyst Alex Krüger emphasizes that markets often underestimate Bitcoin’s speed. He combines realized volatility metrics with current price action to produce a probabilistic upside estimate. Krüger also plans a series of pieces on the FOMC and macro outlook.
Known headwinds include Michael Saylor’s lower buying capacity and profit-taking by long-term holders. These factors could mute gains but are unlikely to stop a rally if liquidity and risk appetite improve.
How to interpret volatility and liquidity signals
Step 1: Track realized volatility—if it holds near 40% annual, expect wider price ranges. Step 2: Monitor on-chain liquidity and exchange flows for net inflows or outflows. Step 3: Watch macro cues—Fed language, US economic data, and equity market moves.
Key Takeaways
- Model-based target: A volatility-scaling model points to ~23% upside, near $136,000, if realized volatility stays ~40%.
- Fed catalyst: A 25-basis-point cut and dovish Fed tone are primary triggers for improved liquidity and higher risk-appetite.
- Risk management: Monitor large-holder behavior and exchange flows; use conservative position sizing around the announcement.
Conclusion
COINOTAG reporting: The path to a Bitcoin $136,000 target is conditional and hinges on realized volatility, liquidity, and the Federal Reserve’s messaging. Traders should prioritize risk management and watch liquidity metrics closely. Expect market-moving volatility around the Fed decision and prepare for rapid price action.
Published: 17 September 2025 | 12:00
By: COINOTAG — Reporter desk
