Polkadot’s $8.60 Retest: Could It Signal a Rally Toward $12.61 or a Drop to $4.15?

• Polkadot’s price action has reached a crucial juncture as it retests the $8.60 support level, setting the stage for potential significant price movements.

• Recent trading patterns and market dynamics signal an optimistic outlook; however, the $8.60 barrier remains a focal point for traders navigating its volatility.

• “A successful retest could propel DOT towards $12.61, representing a substantial bullish move,” notes an analyst from COINOTAG.

Polkadot (DOT) faces critical price action at $8.60—traders eye a breakout to $12.61 or a drop to $4.15, signaling a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency.

Historical Precedent and Price Targets for Polkadot

The $8.60 level is more than just a number for Polkadot; it serves as a vital inflection point that has historically dictated the asset’s price trajectory. Pivotal retests at this mark have previously led to significant price rallies, including the notable surge above $50 in 2021.

Conversely, the lack of support this year has reminded traders of the level’s critical importance, especially when recalling earlier losses resulting from failed retests.

Source: X

Should Polkadot secure its footing at $8.60, analysis predicts a potential leap to the next resistance level around $12.61—translating to a possible upside of over 100%. However, failure to maintain this support could signal a downturn, revisiting lows near $4.15.

Metrics Indicating Bullish Momentum for Polkadot

Currently trading at approximately $8.86, Polkadot has experienced a 4.40% increase over the last day, reflecting a broader upward trend of 16.97% in the past seven days. This momentum is confirmed by a robust trading volume of $1.03 billion, positioning DOT’s market capitalization at around $13.48 billion.

Noteworthy metrics from Coinglass indicate an 8.74% rise in open interest to $499.25 million, alongside a notable 22.03% increase in trading volume, now reported at $915.97 million.

Notably, the OI-weighted funding rate has remained positive since mid-November, aligning with substantial demand for long positions, which has been confirmed by recent spikes in funding rates observed on November 12th and 18th.

Source: Coinglass

Analyzing On-chain Activity and Technical Patterns

On-chain analytics present a mixed picture for Polkadot, with DefiLlama reporting a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $55.89 million, indicating a significant drop of 27.44% over the last 24 hours. This decrease could warrant caution, yet the market’s response may not reflect this alone, as positive funding rates persist.

Despite a declining TVL, the climbing open interest and strong funding rates suggest a resilient sentiment among traders, indicated by a broader push for price appreciation.

In technical terms, Polkadot has broken out of a bullish falling wedge pattern, which often precedes upward momentum. This aligns favorably with the recent move above $8.60, drawing attention from traders eagerly monitoring the monthly closing for further validation of this trend.

Conclusion

Polkadot stands at a critical junction, with its ability to sustain the $8.60 level potentially leading to significant price gains towards $12.61. However, if this support fails, traders might brace for a downward swing back to $4.15. As the market evolves, keeping a close eye on these levels will be crucial for investors looking to navigate the upcoming volatility in DOT.