Possible Future Challenges Loom for TON as TVL and User Engagement Decline

• Recent data reveals that The Open Network (TON) is facing substantial challenges, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) plummeting and user engagement reaching historical lows.

• The significant drop in daily active users and TVL indicates that investor confidence is faltering, prompting a broader discussion about TON’s potential recovery.

• As noted by industry analysts, “The market response to these changes will be critical for TON’s future viability,” highlighting the urgency of the situation.

This article explores the recent declines in TON’s TVL and user engagement, analyzing the implications for the crypto ecosystem and investor sentiment.

On-Chain Data Paints a Grim Picture for TON

According to data from DefiLlama, The Open Network (TON) reached a peak in Total Value Locked (TVL) in mid-July at approximately $773 million. This peak was indicative of a robust and growing ecosystem.

However, the situation has dramatically changed. Today, TON’s TVL has shrunk to just $215 million, reflecting a staggering decline of more than 72% from its all-time high. This descent signals not only a loss of investor capital but also a concerning shift in the platform’s attractiveness to new users.

TON Cumulative TVL. Source: DefiLlama

This decline is mirrored by a catastrophic reduction in daily new users. Data from Dune Analytics shows that the peak user count had soared to 724,465 by September 30, but by February 5, that figure had diminished to merely 33,852.

This sharp decrease of over 95% raises critical questions regarding the ongoing appeal of the TON blockchain to prospective users and investors.

The Number of New Users From February 2024 to 2025. Source: Dune

The impact of these declines extends beyond numbers, as many TON investors are now facing considerable financial losses. Recent sentiment analysis indicates that approximately 96% of token holders are currently in the red, with dissatisfaction echoing across social media platforms.

One investor expressed their dismay, stating, “Never in my life did I ever think I would see Notcoin at $0.0033 and Toncoin at $4.2.” Such sentiments underscore the growing frustration among investors.

This situation suggests a prevailing negative sentiment is driving an uptick in selling activity, with only about 4% of holders, roughly 4.2 million addresses, currently realizing profits.

The Roadmap Ahead

The Open Network, initially built on Telegram’s infrastructure, has relied heavily on tap-to-earn and GameFi applications to attract users. However, with the recent declines in engagement, the TON core team has taken steps to reassess its strategies.

Less than two weeks ago, a development roadmap for the first half of 2025 was released, highlighting planned features aimed at improving core functionalities and potentially diversifying revenue streams.

This expansion strategy is a direct response to declining profitability stemming from waning interest in previous revenue avenues, such as tap-to-earn games.

Despite having severed ties with Telegram in 2020 due to regulatory issues, a recent partnership revival has sparked debate among users regarding the platform’s commitment to decentralization.

The success and acceptance of this roadmap will be crucial, particularly in light of the recent negative trends that could pose challenges to the network’s future.

Conclusion

The current landscape for The Open Network reflects a critical juncture, with substantial drops in both TVL and user engagement signaling deep-seated challenges. Investors face bleak circumstances, with most holders currently sitting on losses. As TON prepares to navigate this tumultuous environment, the effectiveness of its new roadmap and strategies will ultimately dictate its long-term viability in the competitive blockchain space.