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Bitcoin’s price surge of 14.6% over the past month signals potential bullish trends driven by miner economics and an uptick in network hashrate.
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Recent data on miner breakeven costs and improved hash rate models support expectations of further upward price momentum.
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Increased accumulation by long-term holders, combined with rising global liquidity, is generating reduced selling pressure and heightened demand.
Bitcoin shows promising signs of a bullish reversal, with miner economics and long-term holder accumulation suggesting a potential price surge ahead.
Is a Bitcoin Bull Run Returning?
In a recent post on X, analyst Robert Breedlove highlighted key statistics on average miner breakeven costs from Blockware Team, asserting that Bitcoin could soon enter a bull market. He stated that historically, Bitcoin prices tend to stabilize above this threshold, below which miners may halt operations due to unprofitability.
“In a rational economy, assets rarely trade below their cost of production,” Breedlove emphasized, noting the index has successfully identified six market bottoms between 2016 and 2024, suggesting a possible turnaround for Bitcoin.
This trend is further corroborated by MacroMicro data, showing that the 30-day moving average (MA) of the mining cost-to-BTC price ratio currently stands at 1.05. This indicates that miners have largely been operating at a loss, which could tighten supply and drive prices upward as unprofitable operations scale back.
Moreover, the Bitcoin hash rate price model, which correlates the asset’s value with hash rate performances, bolsters the optimistic forecast. Analyst Giovanni remarked that the model is presently indicating a significant support level for Bitcoin prices.
“The fact the hash rate based BTC valuation is at the support level means that we probably reached some kind of local bottom,” Giovanni conveyed.
Further market signals emphasize the potential for a rally. Breedlove noted that long-term holders have accumulated around 150,000 BTC within the last month, further reducing selling pressure in the $80,000 to $100,000 range. A decrease in willingness to sell Bitcoin at these price levels can lead to upward price momentum as demand continues to rise amidst dwindling supply.
“At its core, the Bitcoin price is simply a function of supply and demand. After a price increase, previously inactive coins begin to move on-chain. Conversely, during periods of stagnant or negative prices, long-term holders tend to buy more coins, setting the stage for a potential supply shock and subsequent price surge,” he elaborated.
Additionally, rising global liquidity is amplifying the capital pool available for Bitcoin investments. This increase is additionally propelled by Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), treasury companies, and convertible bond offerings, which simplify access for new liquidity entering the Bitcoin sector.
“And it’s not just USD liquidity that’s increasing – liquidity from all fiat currencies is on the rise, and Bitcoin remains a global asset,” Breedlove concluded.
Recently, COINOTAG reported on a few bullish indicators for BTC, showing that demand appears to have turned positive, reflective of growing purchasing activity. Furthermore, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has bounced back from the historically important mean of 1.74, often indicating the early stages of a bull market.
Significantly, amid these bullish signals, BTC has demonstrated substantial price movement. Despite dipping below the $75,000 threshold in early April, the price has shown notable recovery.
Over the past week, BTC has experienced a 4.3% increase, with its current trading price at $97,048, marking daily gains of 2.3%.
Conclusion
In summary, a confluence of favorable indicators suggests that Bitcoin could be on the threshold of a significant bullish movement. The interplay of miner conditions, long-term holder strategies, and rising liquidity presents a complex yet promising landscape for Bitcoin investors. Staying informed and analyzing these driving factors will be crucial for navigating the evolving cryptocurrency market.
