Raoul Pal: BTC Drop Due to US Liquidity Shortage

BTC Market Analysis from Raoul Pal

Founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal argued that the 250 billion dollar loss in the total market value of crypto markets over the weekend is not a crypto-specific issue but stems from US liquidity shortage. Noting that BTC and Software as a Service (SaaS) stocks have fallen in sync recently, Pal emphasized that both are long-term assets based on future cash flows and are sensitive to liquidity and interest rates. He stated that the gold rally is hitting risky assets like BTC and SaaS by pulling marginal liquidity from the system.

UBS Saas Index and BTC are highly correlated. Source: Raoul Pal

Two government shutdowns in the US and the draining of the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) in 2024 accelerated liquidity drainage. The refilling of the Treasury cash account (TGA) is now creating pure liquidity loss. Pal rejected the bearish Fed narrative by arguing that Trump's Fed chair candidate Kevin Warsh will implement interest rate cuts and liquidity will flow through banks. He stated that liquidity drainage is nearing its end and they are in a bullish position for 2026.

BTC Recent Drops and News

Bitcoin fell below MicroStrategy's cost basis (76.037 $) for the first time since October 2023. It also dropped below 80,000 dollars for the first time since April 2025. While the current price is rising 0.84% to 78.195,52 $, the market appears squeezed under liquidity pressure.

BTC Technical Outlook and Supports

• RSI: 28.42 (Oversold region)
• Trend: Downtrend, Supertrend bearish
• EMA 20: 86.378 $ (Above price)
• Supports: S1 74.604 $ (Strong, 75% score), S2 77.445 $ (Medium)
• Resistances: R1 79.396 $ (Strong, 73% score), R2 83.548 $

With Pal's bullish forecast, the oversold RSI may indicate bottom formation.