Research Suggests Mispricings on Polymarket May Allow Traders to Lock in Risk‑Free Arbitrage Profits

• Mispricings found in 7,000+ markets

• Estimated $40M+ extracted by arbitrageurs across one year of Polymarket data

• Mispricing arises both within single markets and across logically linked contracts

Polymarket arbitrage and prediction market mispricing revealed: learn how traders locked $40M+ from inconsistencies—read analysis and practical detection steps.

What is Polymarket arbitrage and why does it matter?

Polymarket arbitrage is the practice of exploiting price inconsistencies in prediction markets—when outcome token prices violate probabilistic rules, traders can lock a risk-free profit. The April 2024–April 2025 study documents systemic mispricing across thousands of markets and quantifies more than $40 million captured by arbitrageurs.

How do mispricings occur on prediction markets?

Mispricings appear for two common reasons: fragmented liquidity and overlapping market definitions. Liquidity fragmentation leaves gaps where similar or logically linked markets trade at inconsistent odds. Overlapping questions—such as “Trump wins” vs “Republican wins”—can momentarily diverge, creating combinable trades that guarantee profit.

Which platforms and structures are most exposed?

The study examined continuous, peer-to-peer event-betting platforms that issue outcome tokens. Platforms built on crypto rails (Polymarket and similar venues) and regulated platforms (e.g., Kalshi) share structural vulnerability. Exposure scales with market fragmentation and the speed of professional market-making activity.

How did researchers measure arbitrage on Polymarket?

Researchers analyzed one year of trade-level data (April 2024–April 2025), scanning for violations of probabilistic consistency and logical relationships between markets. They counted instances where contract prices implied arbitrage and estimated realized profits by tracking execution events attributed to arbitrage strategies.

What were the key findings?

• 7,000+ mispriced markets: measurable violations across high- and low-liquidity contracts.
• $40M+ captured: estimated profits withdrawn by arbitrageurs identified in the dataset.
• Both obvious and subtle arbitrage: direct sum-to-one failures and cross-market logical inconsistencies.

How can traders detect arbitrage opportunities?

Professional traders use automated monitoring and combinatorial checks across related markets. Below are practical, snippet-friendly steps to detect likely arbitrage:

1. Compare paired outcomes (Yes/No) to ensure prices sum to $1; flag deviations above a small tolerance.
2. Scan logically linked markets for transitive inconsistencies (e.g., A vs B, A vs C, B vs C).
3. Monitor spreads and depth—thin order books yield larger, shorter-lived mispricings.
4. Automate execution to capture brief windows before market-makers restore consistency.

Is this unique to Polymarket or common across prediction markets?

Mispricing is not unique to Polymarket. Any venue with fragmented liquidity, overlapping markets, and asynchronous information flow can exhibit arbitrage opportunities. Algorithmic market-makers often correct inconsistencies, but they can persist long enough for arbitrageurs to profit.

Comparison: Polymarket vs other venues

Frequently Asked Questions

How often do arbitrage opportunities appear on Polymarket?

Researchers found thousands of opportunities over a one-year period; more than 7,000 markets showed measurable mispricing between April 2024 and April 2025, making arbitrage recurrent rather than rare.

How should casual bettors interpret market prices?

Casual bettors should view prices as dynamic, crowd-sourced signals that can be temporarily distorted. Short-term deviations do not always reflect true probabilities until arbitrage and market-making restore consistency.

Key Takeaways

• Systemic mispricing exists: Thousands of markets showed probabilistic inconsistencies in one year.
• Real money was made: Researchers estimate over $40 million extracted by arbitrageurs.
• Detection is actionable: Automated checks and fast execution can capture brief arbitrage windows.

Conclusion

This analysis demonstrates that prediction market mispricing—notably on Polymarket—creates tangible arbitrage opportunities that professional traders exploit. While arbitrage improves long-term efficiency, short-term inconsistencies persist; readers seeking to act should prioritize automated monitoring, solid risk controls, and continuous market surveillance. Published by COINOTAG on 2025-05-15. Updated 2025-05-15.