Rising TRON Activity May Not Translate to TRX Gains and Could Pressure Price Toward $0.32

• 9–10M daily transactions and 15.1M active accounts indicate usage-driven growth

• USDT transfers on TRON formed a $25B baseline in transaction volume, lifting overall throughput.

• Spot Taker CVD shows a -35M Delta (206M sell vs 171M buy), pressuring TRX price near $0.32.

TRON network activity surges: 9–10M daily txns, $25B USDT flow and 15.1M active accounts — COINOTAG analysis of on‑chain metrics and TRX price impact. Read the data‑led breakdown.

What is driving TRON network activity?

TRON network activity is driven primarily by heavy stablecoin flows and rising user interactions. Daily transactions averaged 9–10 million in September and USDT transfers on TRON totaled about $25 billion, underscoring use cases such as remittances, exchanges and dApp throughput.

How do on‑chain metrics compare to user retention?

On‑chain growth contrasts with weak retention. Active Accounts (30D) reached 15.1 million while Total Accounts rose to 300.4 million. However, cohort retention fell sharply — Artemis reports monthly cohort retention down from 19% to 2% — suggesting many users transact once and churn soon after.

Why are transactions and stablecoin flows increasing on TRON?

Stablecoins — primarily USDT — are the primary throughput drivers. Artemis data show USDT transfers on TRON formed a $25 billion baseline, supporting decentralized exchanges, payment rails and high‑frequency transfers. CryptoQuant data also confirm daily transactions stayed between 9 and 10 million throughout September.

CryptoQuant shows a 30‑day moving average above 9 million daily transactions, roughly a 20% increase from January levels. This sustained throughput points to repeatable transactional demand even when token price momentum is weak.

How does user growth reconcile with low retention?

Growth metrics are top‑line while retention metrics reveal churn. Dune reports 15.1 million 30‑day active accounts, but Artemis cohort analysis shows retention declines — the May 2025 cohort included 6.2 million entrants and only ~12% remained by August 2025. This pattern suggests many users perform one‑off actions rather than staying active month to month.

Higher transaction volume with low retention can be driven by exchange flows, airdrops, token migrations or single‑purpose dApp activity. Data sources referenced: CryptoQuant, Artemis, Dune and COINOTAG (plain text references).

How is on‑chain activity affecting TRX market dynamics?

Despite rising network metrics, TRX price has seen selling pressure. Spot Taker CVD indicates seller dominance with a -35 million Delta, and Coinalyze reports 206 million in Sell Volume vs 171 million Buy Volume in 24 hours. Historically, persistent selling in spot markets tends to precede downward price moves.

Price scenarios:

• Bearish: Continued seller dominance could push TRX toward $0.32 support.

• Bullish: If network usage converts to user retention and buy‑side conviction, TRX may test $0.35 resistance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What should traders and users watch next?

Monitor daily Spot Taker CVD and sell/buy volume, cohort retention (monthly), and stablecoin transfer totals. A shift to net buy flow plus higher retention would be the clearest sign that network usage is starting to support TRX price.

Key Takeaways

• On‑chain growth: TRON records 9–10M daily transactions and 15.1M active accounts, driven by stablecoin flows.
• Retention risk: Monthly cohort retention collapsed from 19% to 2%, indicating high churn despite activity spikes.
• Market pressure: Spot Taker CVD shows seller dominance (-35M Delta); persistent selling could push TRX toward $0.32.

Conclusion

COINOTAG analysis shows TRON’s on‑chain activity is robust in volume and users, led by USDT transfers and elevated transactions. However, weak retention and current spot selling keep TRX under short‑term pressure. Watch retention metrics and net taker flows for the clearest signal of a sustainable price reversal.

Author: COINOTAG | Published: 2025‑09‑22 | Updated: 2025‑09‑22