Risks Looming Over SEC’s Appeal Against Ripple: What’s at Stake?

• The SEC’s limited resources and recent lawsuits could deter it from appealing the Ripple case.
• Even if the SEC appeals, Ripple could potentially delay the case until after the 2024 presidential elections, which could result in a change in SEC leadership.
• If the SEC chooses not to appeal, it may opt for a settlement. Despite not losing the case entirely, the SEC did suffer a partial loss, which could be spun as a political victory.
• If the case goes to the Supreme Court, the SEC’s position could weaken due to the conservative composition of the court and the judge who made the decision being an Obama appointee.

Decoding the SEC’s Potential Moves in the Ripple Case

Resource Constraints and Legal Battles

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently grappling with limited human and financial resources. This, coupled with a slew of recent lawsuits, could make it challenging for the SEC to take the Ripple case to a higher court. Previously, the SEC had targeted exchanges rather than individual crypto companies due to these constraints.

Political Changes and Legal Delays

Considering the court’s calendar, Ripple could potentially delay the case until after the 2024 presidential elections if the SEC decides to appeal. This could result in a change in SEC leadership, particularly if current President Biden does not win the election. This possibility is quite high and could significantly impact the case.

Settlement Scenarios

If the SEC decides against appealing, it may choose to settle. Although the SEC did not lose the case entirely, it did suffer a partial loss. The court ruled that XRP’s corporate sales were investment contracts, but its exchange sales were not. The SEC could spin this partial victory as a political win and close the case.

Supreme Court Implications

If the case is appealed and eventually lands in the Supreme Court, the SEC’s position could weaken. The judge who ruled in the case was an Obama appointee, which eliminates any ideological complaints from the SEC. Additionally, the Supreme Court is predominantly conservative, and they may not be inclined to favor Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman and a Biden appointee, ahead of the elections.

In conclusion, while the odds are still 50/50, the above factors indicate that the SEC would be taking a significant risk if it decides to appeal.