RUSI Says Lax Crypto Rules Could Let A7A5 Stablecoin Facilitate Russian Laundering, Cost Ukraine Up to $10 Billion

• Recover at least $10 billion through tighter crypto rules and tax clarity.

• Target stablecoins, regulate OTC markets and protect war-time financial integrity.

• RUSI: money-mule networks cost Ukraine $24 million per month; banks closed 80,000 mule accounts last year.

Ukraine crypto regulation: Tightening rules could recover $10B, stop $24M/month money-mule losses and meet FATF standards — learn the steps Ukraine must take now.

What is Ukraine crypto regulation and why does it matter?

Ukraine crypto regulation refers to legal rules that govern virtual assets, taxation, AML/CFT controls and licensing for crypto firms. Strong regulation protects public finances, reduces sanctions evasion and prevents illicit funding while enabling legitimate crypto innovation.

How could stronger regulation recover stolen funds and boost tax revenue?

According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), clearer tax rules and comprehensive oversight could unlock at least $10 billion in recovered funds and tax revenue. Targeting over-the-counter (OTC) flows, stabilizing rules for stablecoins and enforcing AML/CFT would reduce money-mule schemes and illicit value chains.

What specific vulnerabilities does the RUSI report identify?

RUSI highlights Ukraine’s OTC trading, gaps in taxation, and the overlap between cybercrime and illicit finance. The report flags Telegram-based trafficking paid in crypto and the use of Ukrainian actors as intermediaries for laundering Russian funds.

Why are money mules and OTC markets central to the risk?

Money-mule networks—locally called “drops”—drain an estimated $24 million per month from Ukraine’s budget. Banks closed about 80,000 mule accounts last year, but low recruitment thresholds (payments as small as $120) keep the pipeline active.

How does international compliance affect Ukraine’s crypto rules?

Ukraine must harmonize virtual asset rules with EU accession requirements and comply with FATF recommendations by late 2025. Non-compliance risks downgrade in MONEYVAL reviews and reduced international cooperation against illicit finance.

How can Ukraine implement effective crypto regulation? (Step-by-step)

• 1. Clarify taxation: Pass the pending taxation bill tied to the Law on Virtual Assets to prevent fiscal leakage and legal uncertainty.
• 2. Regulate OTC and stablecoins: License OTC desks and set clear rules for stablecoin issuance and custody.
• 3. Strengthen AML/CFT: Enforce KYC, expand suspicious activity monitoring, and target money-mule recruitment channels.
• 4. Coordinate internationally: Align with FATF, EU directives and share intelligence regionally to disrupt cross-border laundering.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much could Ukraine recover by regulating crypto properly?

RUSI estimates at least $10 billion could be recovered through comprehensive regulation, better taxation and targeted enforcement against illicit flows and money-mule networks.

What immediate actions can reduce money-mule activity?

Immediate measures include public awareness campaigns, rapid account freezes, stronger KYC across exchanges and targeted prosecutions of organized mule networks.

Key Takeaways

• Fiscal recovery potential: Stronger rules could unlock at least $10 billion.
• Operational priorities: Regulate OTC markets, stabilize rules for stablecoins, and finalize tax legislation.
• Enforcement actions: Target money-mule networks and improve AML/CFT to protect wartime finances and deter sanctions evasion.

Conclusion

Ukraine crypto regulation is a fiscal and security imperative: clear tax laws, oversight of OTC and stablecoin activity, and strict AML/CFT enforcement can recover billions, reduce criminal exploitation and align Ukraine with EU and FATF standards. Rapid, targeted reforms will protect public funds and help legitimate crypto businesses thrive.