- Thielen predicts that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will reject all Bitcoin spot ETF proposals in January.
- The analyst argued that an ETF would help gain momentum for crypto in the U.S., but the SEC chairman still sees the industry in need of stricter compliance.
- Currently, 14 asset managers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Valkyrie, and VanEck, are hoping to finally receive SEC approval.
According to a report released by Matrixport today, the SEC will reject all spot Bitcoin ETF applications in January!
SEC Might Reject All Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Contrary to broad market expectations, Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen predicts that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will reject all Bitcoin spot ETF proposals in January. Despite frequent meetings between applicants and the SEC in recent weeks and updated S-1 drafts, Thielen stated that these applications still do not meet a critical requirement for SEC approval.
Thielen based his perspective on political dynamics and compliance concerns. The analyst argued that an ETF would help gain momentum for crypto in the U.S., but the SEC chairman still sees the industry in need of stricter compliance.
Thielen said, “SEC Chairman Gensler is not embracing the crypto issue in the U.S., and it might be very difficult to expect him to vote to approve Bitcoin spot ETFs. This could happen by the second quarter of 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January.”
Gensler stated last month, “There is a lot of fraud and malicious actors in the crypto space. Not only are securities laws not being followed, but also anti-money laundering and laws protecting the public from malicious actors are not being followed.”
What happens if Bitcoin spot ETFs are rejected?
The crypto industry has been striving for a bitcoin spot ETF for years; currently, 14 asset managers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Valkyrie, and VanEck, are hoping to finally receive SEC approval.
If the SEC rejects Bitcoin spot ETF applications this month, Thielen expects to see gradual liquidations along with the resolution of billions of dollars worth of continuous long Bitcoin futures. This could lead to a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin, returning to the range of $36,000 to $38,000, he said.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $42,300. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has increased by 5% since the beginning of the year and 65% in the last three months, marking the 15th anniversary of the expansion block today.
Despite possible short-term volatility after the SEC’s rejection, Thielen’s 2024 forecast remains bullish. Matrixport expects Bitcoin to surpass its starting point of $42,000 by the end of the year based on historical models of U.S. election years and Bitcoin mining cycles, providing a glimmer of hope for long-term investors amid regulatory uncertainties.
