Solana Could Hold Rising Channel After $95M Whale Transfer as Spot Accumulation and On-Chain Metrics Ease Bearish Pressure

• Large Coinbase inflow increases short-term sell pressure risk

• Bearish momentum indicators (DMI, ADX, Parabolic SAR) are cooling, signaling reduced downside conviction.

• Spot taker buy dominance, recovering network growth and rising social dominance support longer-term resilience.

Solana whale transfer weakens near-term outlook but spot accumulation and on-chain recovery support resilience — read analysis and next steps.

What does the Solana whale transfer mean for SOL price?

Solana whale transfer of 459,823 SOL (~$95 million) to Coinbase increases the probability of near-term selling pressure, as exchange inflows historically precede disposals. However, cooling bearish momentum and steady spot accumulation make a decisive breakdown less likely in the immediate term.

How are technical indicators shaping the short-term SOL outlook?

Momentum indicators show a mixed picture. The DMI currently has the -DI above +DI, confirming seller advantage, but the ADX has softened, indicating that trend strength is fading. Parabolic SAR sits above price but is approaching a potential flip below candles, which would signal diminishing downside pressure. Short-term support remains inside the rising channel near $206.

Can spot accumulation outweigh whale-driven risks?

Spot market metrics point to ongoing demand absorption. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows persistent taker-buy dominance, suggesting buyers have been consistently taking liquidity on dips. This behavior reduces the likelihood of a rapid cascade even after large exchange inflows.

On-chain monitoring shows accumulation concentrated at support levels. That pattern implies market participants are willing to hold or buy into weakness, helping dampen immediate liquidation risk despite the Coinbase deposit.

Source: TradingView (price chart)

How do on-chain metrics and social signals affect SOL’s trajectory?

Network Growth rebounded from sub-700K levels to near 1 million Daily New Addresses, signaling renewed on-chain activity. Social Dominance climbed to roughly 5.5%, reflecting stronger community attention. These fundamentals complement spot demand and provide a structural floor that can absorb intermittent sell flows.

Source: CryptoQuant (spot CVD)

What does community recovery mean for SOL’s medium-term outlook?

Improved on-chain adoption and rising social engagement increase the likelihood that positive catalysts can sustain a recovery. While a single whale transfer can trigger short-term volatility, growing developer activity and higher daily new addresses underpin medium-term demand.

Source: Santiment (on-chain & social metrics)

Frequently Asked Questions

How much SOL was moved in the whale transfer?

The transfer involved 459,823 SOL, valued at roughly $95 million at the time of deposit. The funds were sent to Coinbase, which historically increases the probability of subsequent selling.

Will the Coinbase inflow crash SOL price?

Not necessarily. While exchange inflows raise immediate sell risk, cooling DMI/ADX signals and steady spot taker buys reduce the likelihood of a rapid crash. Market reaction depends on whether the inflow is immediately distributed or held on exchange custody.

Key Takeaways

• Whale inflow risk: A $95M Coinbase deposit raises short-term selling pressure concerns.
• Momentum easing: DMI, ADX and Parabolic SAR point to cooling bearish momentum.
• Fundamental support: Spot accumulation, network growth and rising social dominance provide structural resilience.

Conclusion

Solana’s whale transfer to Coinbase increases short-term downside risk, but a combination of cooling bearish indicators and robust spot accumulation suggests SOL may maintain its rising channel. Monitoring exchange flows, taker volume, and daily new addresses will be key to assessing whether selling pressure materializes or is absorbed.

Publication: COINOTAG — Published: 2025-10-01 — Updated: 2025-10-01

Sources cited as plain text: TradingView, CryptoQuant, Santiment.