Solana Could Rally If U.S. Spot ETF Filings Gain Approval, But Options Skew Signals Caution

• SEC final deadlines fall between Oct 10–16 for major SOL ETF applications.

• Issuers updated filings on Sept 26, signaling renewed movement from both issuers and regulators.

• Market data shows ~3 million SOL withdrawn from exchanges over six days—evidence of accumulation.

SOL ETFs: Mid‑October decision window after fresh filings; read market reaction and what traders should watch next — stay informed with COINOTAG.

When will SOL ETFs be approved?

Solana ETF approval timelines center on mid‑October: Grayscale’s SOL ETF faces an SEC decision deadline on October 10, while Bitwise and 21Shares have final deadlines around October 16. Recent updated filings on September 26 suggest issuers and the SEC are actively engaged, making mid‑October the likely decision window.

How have issuers and analysts framed the updated filings?

Top issuers including VanEck, Fidelity, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary, and Franklin Templeton filed updates on September 26. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart described the filings as “signs of movement from issuers and the SEC” and ETF Store CEO Nate Geraci said approvals could follow within roughly two weeks—by mid‑October.

Solana (SOL) recovered about 7% over the weekend following the wave of updated filings, reflecting renewed spot‑market buying amid ETF optimism.

How are markets reacting to the ETF filings?

Spot traders accumulated SOL while options and futures traders signalled short‑term caution. The spot market saw SOL move from about $190 to $205 after the filings, while aggregate SOL balances on exchanges fell by roughly 3 million SOL over six days — a sign of accumulation reported by on‑chain data providers.

Price context: SOL fell about 24% in recent weeks and briefly dipped under $200 amid weak sentiment. After the Sept 26 updates, the token rebounded ~7%, and analysts note potential rallies toward $220–$250 if ETF approval becomes a clear bullish catalyst. A dip near $180 could present buying interest for spot investors.

Why are options and leverage metrics signaling caution?

Top Binance traders trimmed long positions to 69%—a monthly low—after a recent wave of liquidations. Options market skew shows neutral 1‑week tenor but negative 1‑month and 3‑month 25‑Delta Skew, indicating greater demand for puts or hedging in the mid‑term. That points to near‑term neutrality but increased mid‑term caution among derivatives traders.

What should traders and investors watch next?

• SEC deadlines: Watch Oct 10 (Grayscale) and Oct 16 (Bitwise/21Shares) for rulings.
• Exchange balances: Continued outflows would confirm accumulation and reduce supply pressure.
• Options skew: A shift from negative skew to neutral or positive in 1‑month/3‑month tenors would reduce mid‑term hedging demand.
• Spot flows: Sustained inflows into spot liquidity and ETFs (if approved) would be a meaningful demand signal.

Frequently Asked Questions

When exactly does the SEC decide on SOL ETF applications?

The SEC has formal decision deadlines in October: Grayscale’s SOL ETF is scheduled for an Oct 10 deadline, with Bitwise and 21Shares facing Oct 16 deadlines. Multiple issuers filed updates on Sept 26, making mid‑October the critical period.

Which issuers updated filings and why does it matter?

Major asset managers that updated filings include VanEck, Fidelity, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary, and Franklin Templeton. Updated filings typically signal engagement between issuers and regulators and can accelerate review timelines.

How is on‑chain data influencing the price outlook?

On‑chain metrics show roughly 3 million SOL withdrawn from exchanges over six days, indicating accumulation. Reduced exchange supply alongside ETF approvals could be a bullish structural factor for price.

Key Takeaways

• Decision window: Mid‑October is the likely SEC decision period for SOL ETFs (Oct 10–16 deadlines).
• Market split: Spot traders are accumulating while derivatives traders remain cautious in the mid‑term.
• Actionable insight: Monitor exchange balances, options skew, and SEC notices for decisive signals.

Conclusion

Updated filings from major issuers and looming SEC deadlines have placed Solana ETF approval at the center of market attention. SOL ETFs now face final decision dates in mid‑October; investors should watch on‑chain flows, options skew and official SEC notices to gauge risk and opportunity. COINOTAG will continue tracking developments and market reaction.